Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$379.92
→
Intrinsic$143.32
-62%
$90.73$143.32$222.08
Current price reflects execution expectations above 22% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
Range: Bear $91 → Bull $222. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
Current price reflects assumptions at the upper end of our valuation range (bull case: $222).
Bull Case
- Bull case ($222) with 27% growth, 8% discount rate
Bear Case
- Bear case ($91) implies 76% downside at 18% growth, 12% discount
- Trading 62% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
- Price exceeds bull case ($222) — requires exceptional execution
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📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate22.3%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate9.5%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$0.00TTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.