MODEL VERDICT
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $379.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $366.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $379.08 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.18 | $363.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $376.19 | Below threshold | -10.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $78.55 | -79.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $163.75 | -56.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $140.06 | -63.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $113.93 | -70.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 6 industry peers | $147.27 | -61.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 16 industry peers | $54.33 | -85.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 16 industry peers | $41.50 | -89.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $151.00 | -60.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $202.00 | -46.8% | 100% | 70 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 30× | 33× | 36× (Current) | 39× | 42× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $293 | $322 | $351 | $381 | $410 |
| Conservative (15%) | $308 | $338 | $369 | $400 | $431 |
| Base Case (22.3%) | $329 | $362 | $394 | $427 | $460 |
| Bull Case (30%) | $350 | $385 | $420 | $455 | $490 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 50.67 | 49.05 | 41.25 | 69.98 | 10.18 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.93 | 38.46 | 31.41 | 62.05 | 10.48 |
| EV/EBITDA | 29.13 | 27.51 | 22.72 | 38.23 | 5.06 |
| P/FCF | 111.50 | 77.01 | 32.54 | 329.28 | 108.41 |
| P/FFO | 33.77 | 34.94 | 26.52 | 41.13 | 4.85 |
| P/TBV | 300.06 | 73.93 | 17.43 | 1406.05 | 543.97 |
| P/AFFO | 46.36 | 44.72 | 34.67 | 62.81 | 9.75 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.11 | 19.44 | 15.07 | 21.62 | 2.33 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.06 | 10.29 | 7.70 | 12.30 | 1.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RACE's fair value at $202.00 vs the current price of $379.92, implying -46.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 70/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $202.00 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $176.73 (P10) to $237.06 (P90), with a median of $206.18.
RACE's current P/E of 35.9x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +130.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 50.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
19 analysts cover RACE with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $472.85 (range: $410.00 — $570.00), implying +24.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 70/100, based on: data completeness (21), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 22.4% is 4.0 percentage points above the 7-year average (25.7%), with a Z-score of +1.3σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$521. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RACE's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.3σ, meaning margins are 1.3 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (25.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3720.0% to approximately $521. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.