Upside case
Bull case
$437+34.1%
RACE would need investors to value it at roughly 44x earnings — about 11x more generous than today's 33x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated May 1, 2026
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
19
analysts
14 bullish · 1 bearish · 19 covering RACE
Strong Buy
1
Buy
13
Hold
4
Sell
1
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$457
+40.4% vs today
Scenario Range
$193 – $437
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
19
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
33.1x
Forward P/E · Market cap $57.7B
RACE price targets
Three scenarios for where RACE stock could go
Current
~$325
Confidence
69 / 100
Updated
May 1, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $325
Bear
$193
Base
$347
Bull
$437
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$347+6.6%
This is close to how the market is already pricing RACE — at roughly 35x forward earnings. No dramatic re-rating needed, just steady execution on the core business.
Stress case
Bear case
$193-40.8%
If investor confidence fades or macro conditions deteriorate, a 14x multiple contraction could push RACE down roughly 41% from where it trades now.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Ferrari N.V.
RACE · NYSEConsumer CyclicalAuto - ManufacturersDecember year-end
Ferrari is an ultra-luxury automotive manufacturer that designs, engineers, and produces high-performance sports cars and limited-edition hypercars. It generates revenue primarily from vehicle sales — including sports cars, GT models, and special series — along with brand licensing, merchandise, and after-sales services like maintenance and restoration. The company's moat lies in its iconic brand heritage, racing pedigree, and exclusive production strategy that maintains scarcity and desirability.
Market Cap
$57.7B
Revenue TTM
$7.1B
Net Income TTM
$1.6B
Net Margin
22.3%
RACE Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
92%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
42%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+7.3%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$2.70/$2.57
Revenue
$2.1B/$1.9B
Q4 2025
EPS
$2.50/$2.35
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q1 2026
EPS
$2.49/$2.44
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
Q2 2026
EPS
$2.70/$2.70
Revenue
$2.1B/$2.1B
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $2.70/$2.57 | +5.1% | $2.1B/$1.9B | +8.3% |
| Q4 2025 | $2.50/$2.35 | +6.4% | $2.1B/$2.1B | -0.7% |
| Q1 2026 | $2.49/$2.44 | +2.0% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.6% |
| Q2 2026 | $2.70/$2.70 | +0.0% | $2.1B/$2.1B | +1.0% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$7.8B
+9.4% YoY
FY2
$8.6B
+9.7% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$9.99
+11.0% YoY
FY2
$11.16
+11.8% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 37.2%
Next Earnings
—
Expected EPS
—
Expected Revenue
—
RACE beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RACE Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $7.1B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Cars and Spare Parts
84.0%
+4.8% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
EMEA Excluding Italy
29.9%
+11.4% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Cars and Spare Parts is the largest disclosed segment at 84.0% of FY 2025 revenue, up 4.8% YoY.
EMEA Excluding Italy is the largest reported region at 29.9%, up 11.4% YoY.
RACE Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Significantly Overvalued
Fair value est. $196 — implies -42.6% from today's price.
Premium to Fair Value
42.6%
above fair value
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RACE
30.9x
vs
S&P 500
25.1x
+23% premium
vs Consumer Cyclical Trailing P/E
RACE
30.9x
vs
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+61% premium
vs RACE 5Y Avg P/E
Today
30.9x
vs
5Y Average
48.0x
36% discount
Forward PE
33.1x
S&P 500
19.1x
+74%
Consumer Cyclical
15.1x
+119%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
30.9x
S&P 500
25.1x
+23%
Consumer Cyclical
19.3x
+61%
5Y Avg
48.0x
-36%
PEG Ratio
1.39x
S&P 500
1.72x
-19%
Consumer Cyclical
0.91x
+53%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
21.1x
S&P 500
15.2x
+39%
Consumer Cyclical
11.3x
+86%
5Y Avg
28.2x
-25%
Price/FCF
18.5x
S&P 500
21.1x
-12%
Consumer Cyclical
14.6x
+27%
5Y Avg
66.4x
-72%
Price/Sales
6.9x
S&P 500
3.1x
+120%
Consumer Cyclical
0.7x
+862%
5Y Avg
10.0x
-31%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
S&P 500
1.87%
+15%
Consumer Cyclical
2.23%
-4%
5Y Avg
0.74%
+190%
| Metric | RACE | S&P 500 | Consumer Cyclical | 5Y Avg RACE |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 33.1x | 19.1x+74% | 15.1x+119% | — |
| Trailing PE | 30.9x | 25.1x+23% | 19.3x+61% | 48.0x-36% |
| PEG Ratio | 1.39x | 1.72x-19% | 0.91x+53% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.1x | 15.2x+39% | 11.3x+86% | 28.2x-25% |
| Price/FCF | 18.5x | 21.1x-12% | 14.6x+27% | 66.4x-72% |
| Price/Sales | 6.9x | 3.1x+120% | 0.7x+862% | 10.0x-31% |
| Dividend Yield | 2.14% | 1.87% | 2.23% | 0.74% |
RACE trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRACE Financial Health
Verdict
Exceptional
RACE generates $2.7B in free cash flow at a 37.2% margin — 30.2% ROIC signals a durable competitive advantage · returns 4.9% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$7.1B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.0%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
51.7%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
29.5%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
22.3%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$8.96
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
37.2%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
30.2%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
16.5%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$1.5B
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$1.4B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
0.5× FCF
~0.5 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
43.1%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
4.9%
Dividend
2.1%
Buyback
2.7%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.3B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$5.94
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
66.3%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
177M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRACE Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
High Risk
Valuation
Ferrari’s stock is considered to have an extreme valuation, with a high PEG ratio, indicating significant downside vulnerability if growth expectations are not met or if macroeconomic pressures affect luxury spending.
High Risk
Macroeconomic & Political
General market and economic conditions, geopolitical environment, tariffs, and macro pressures can impact luxury spending and thereby affect Ferrari’s performance.
High Risk
Shareholder Rights & Volatility
The stock has exhibited high volatility, with a significant maximum one-year drawdown, and factors such as analyst ratings, shareholder activity, and liquidity can impact share prices.
Medium
Debt & Financing
Risks related to debt, funding, financing, and interest rates can affect the company’s financial stability and cost of capital.
Medium
Litigation & Investigations
Litigation and governmental investigations pose a risk to Ferrari’s operations and reputation.
Medium
Regulatory Changes
Changes or proposed changes in laws or regulations, or differing interpretations thereof, can affect the business.
Medium
Ability to Sell
Risks related to the company’s sales performance and market demand can impact revenue and profitability.
Medium
Brand Value & Racing Results
Brand value and racing results are identified as factors that could affect Ferrari’s performance.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RACE Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated April 11, 2026
Exceptional Financial Performance
Ferrari achieved €2.1 billion in EBIT in 2025, surpassing its 2026 targets a full year ahead of schedule. The company has driven revenue and gross‑profit growth even with modest increases in shipment volumes, underscoring disciplined margin expansion.
Brand Strength & Pricing Power
Ferrari’s iconic brand allows it to command premium pricing and sustain strong demand despite limited production. The scarcity‑driven brand value underpins its ability to maintain high margins and robust sales.
Personalization & Product Mix
Personalizations accounted for approximately 17.2 % of total group revenue in FY24, boosting the average value per car. This focus on bespoke offerings drives revenue growth without relying on volume increases.
Electrification Strategy
Ferrari is progressing its EV transition with the upcoming Ferrari Luce electric sports car, positioning the brand for future growth while preserving its core identity. The move signals a commitment to sustainable performance without compromising exclusivity.
Disciplined Capital Allocation
Ferrari generates strong cash flow and has committed to returning capital to shareholders through dividends and a substantial share buyback program. The buyback initiative aims to reduce share count and enhance earnings per share, reinforcing shareholder value.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RACE Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$325.44
52W Range Position
6%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$312.55
+4.1% from the low
52-Week High
$519.10
-37.3% from the high
1 Month
-3.80%
3 Month
-2.78%
YTD
-12.5%
1 Year
-30.2%
3Y CAGR
+3.1%
5Y CAGR
+9.9%
10Y CAGR
+22.5%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RACE vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
33.1x
vs 6.7x median
+393% above peer median
Revenue Growth
+9.4%
vs +5.0% median
+87% above peer median
Net Margin
22.3%
vs 2.3% median
+861% above peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RAC RACE Ferrari N.V. | $57.7B | 33.1x | +9.4% | 22.3% | Buy | +40.4% |
TM TM Toyota Motor Corporation | $247.6B | 0.1x | +9.0% | 9.4% | Hold | -5.6% |
HMC HMC Honda Motor Co., Ltd. | $31.3B | — | +7.7% | 2.3% | Hold | +30.4% |
TSL TSLA Tesla, Inc. | $1.46T | 201.3x | +5.0% | 4.0% | Hold | +15.7% |
GM GM General Motors Company | $68.7B | 6.0x | +1.7% | 1.4% | Buy | +20.5% |
F F Ford Motor Company | $45.8B | 7.4x | +2.5% | -3.2% | Hold | +19.5% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RACE Dividend and Capital Return
RACE returns 4.9% annually — 2.14% through dividends and 2.7% through buybacks.
Dividend WatchFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
4.9%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
2.7%
Dividend Yield
2.14%
Payout Ratio
66.3%
How RACE Splits Its Return
Div 2.14%
Buyback 2.7%
Dividend 2.14%Buybacks 2.7%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$5.94
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
4Y
3Y Div CAGR
32.1%
5Y Div CAGR
22.5%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Semi-Annual
2 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.3B
Estimated Shares Retired
4M
Approx. Share Reduction
2.3%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
177M
At 2.3%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $8.52 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $3.39 | +30.3% | 2.0% | 3.6% |
| 2024 | $2.60 | +30.8% | 0.8% | 1.3% |
| 2023 | $1.99 | +35.4% | 0.7% | 1.3% |
| 2022 | $1.47 | +41.4% | 1.0% | 1.6% |
FAQ
7 questionsRACE Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Ferrari N.V. (RACE) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 19 analysts covering the stock, 14 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 4 rate it Hold, and 1 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $457, implying +40.4% from the current price of $325. The bear case scenario is $193 and the bull case is $437.
02What is the RACE stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RACE is $457 based on 19 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $555 (+70.5% from today), and the low-end target is $410 (+26.0%). The base case model target is $347.
03Is Ferrari N.V. (RACE) stock overvalued in 2026?
RACE trades at 33.1x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals significantly overvalued. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Ferrari N.V. (RACE) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RACE in 2026 are: (1) Valuation — Ferrari’s stock is considered to have an extreme valuation, with a high PEG ratio, indicating significant downside vulnerability if growth expectations are not met or if macroeconomic pressures affect luxury spending. (2) Macroeconomic & Political — General market and economic conditions, geopolitical environment, tariffs, and macro pressures can impact luxury spending and thereby affect Ferrari’s performance. (3) Shareholder Rights & Volatility — The stock has exhibited high volatility, with a significant maximum one-year drawdown, and factors such as analyst ratings, shareholder activity, and liquidity can impact share prices. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Ferrari N.V.'s revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RACE will report consensus revenue of $7.8B (+9.4% year-over-year) and EPS of $9.99 (+11.0% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $8.6B in revenue.
06When does Ferrari N.V. (RACE) report its next earnings?
A confirmed upcoming earnings date for RACE is not yet available. Check the Earnings section above for the most recent quarterly report dates and forward estimates.
07How much free cash flow does Ferrari N.V. generate?
Ferrari N.V. (RACE) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 37.2%. RACE returns capital to shareholders through dividends (2.1% yield) and share repurchases ($1.3B TTM).