Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$145.81
→
Intrinsic$124.23
-15%
$86.05$124.23$196.67
Market implies 29% growth for 5 years
RDDT appears fairly valued — current price aligns with our DCF estimate.
At $146, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (29%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $86 → Bull $197. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $152 | $164 | $176 | $190 |
| 10% | $108 | $116 | $124 | $133 |
| 12% | $83 | $89 | $96 | $102 |
| 14% | $68 | $72 | $77 | $83 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($197) offers 35% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($86) implies 41% downside at 20% growth, 12% discount
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$855.21M
Year 2$1.07B
Year 3$1.34B
Year 4$1.67B
Year 5$2.09B
Terminal$30.72B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$684.17MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.