MODEL VERDICT
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $145.81 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $150.17 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $139.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $149.98 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $244.56 | Below threshold | -42.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 29 analyst estimates | $47.29 | -67.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 24 industry peers | $30.74 | -78.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 19 industry peers | $40.95 | -71.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $46.19 | -68.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 20 industry peers | $23.40 | -84.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 27 industry peers | $47.74 | -67.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 34 industry peers | $30.38 | -79.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 34 industry peers | $27.97 | -80.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 23 industry peers | $55.72 | -61.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 27 industry peers | $44.68 | -69.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $42.65 | -70.8% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 48× | 52× | 56× (Current) | 60× | 64× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $131 | $142 | $153 | $163 | $174 |
| Conservative (7%) | $134 | $145 | $156 | $167 | $179 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $138 | $150 | $161 | $173 | $184 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $143 | $155 | $167 | $178 | $190 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RDDT's fair value at $42.65 vs the current price of $145.81, implying -70.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $42.65 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.12 (P10) to $55.90 (P90), with a median of $41.37.
RDDT's current P/E of 55.7x compares to the industry median of 15.6x (19 peers in the group). This represents a +256.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
25 analysts cover RDDT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $248.26 (range: $170.00 — $325.00), implying +70.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (14), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RDDT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.