MODEL VERDICT
Reddit, Inc. (RDDT)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $166.48 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $154.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $163.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $158.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $139.73 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $59.63 | -64.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $49.42 | -70.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $79.94 | -52.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $57.36 | -65.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $42.05 | -74.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $67.47 | -59.5% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $35.69 | -78.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $26.84 | -83.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $76.08 | -54.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $49.72 | -70.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.76 | -62.9% | 100% | 65 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 54× | 59× | 64× (Current) | 69× | 74× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $147 | $161 | $174 | $188 | $202 |
| Conservative (7%) | $151 | $165 | $179 | $193 | $206 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $156 | $170 | $184 | $199 | $213 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $161 | $175 | $190 | $205 | $220 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RDDT's fair value at $61.76 vs the current price of $166.48, implying -62.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 65/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.76 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $45.55 (P10) to $71.28 (P90), with a median of $58.14.
RDDT's current P/E of 63.5x compares to the industry median of 30.5x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +108.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: High Premium.
26 analysts cover RDDT with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $228.11 (range: $110.00 — $325.00), implying +37.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (15), Hold (10), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 65/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (5), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RDDT.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.