Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$31.60
→
Intrinsic$126.60
+301%
$82.61$126.60$210.05
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests MTCH could have 301% upside at 25% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $32, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 25%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $83 → Bull $210. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 21% | 23% | 25% | 27% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $158 | $172 | $187 | $202 |
| 10% | $107 | $117 | $127 | $137 |
| 12% | $79 | $86 | $94 | $101 |
| 14% | $61 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($210) offers 565% upside at 30% growth, 9% discount
- Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
- Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (25%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($83) with 20% growth, 12% discount rate
- Using 25% growth — aggressive, watch for mean reversion
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$1.28B
Year 2$1.60B
Year 3$2.00B
Year 4$2.50B
Year 5$3.12B
Terminal$45.96B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate25.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$1.02BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.