Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$79.00
→
Intrinsic$49.81
-37%
$25.52$49.81$95.97
Market implies 16% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 8% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $79, the market prices in continued high-teens cash flow growth (16%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $26 → Bull $96. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 4% | 6% | 8% | 10% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $64 | $72 | $81 | $91 |
| 10% | $38 | $44 | $50 | $56 |
| 12% | $23 | $28 | $32 | $37 |
| 14% | $14 | $18 | $21 | $25 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($96) offers 21% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
- Conservative 8% growth assumption is achievable based on track record
Bear Case
- Bear case ($26) implies 68% downside at 6% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 16% growth expectations vs 8% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 37% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year FFO Projection
Year 1$834.90M
Year 2$902.45M
Year 3$975.46M
Year 4$1.05B
Year 5$1.14B
Terminal$16.77B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate8.1%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$772.40MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.