MODEL VERDICT
RELX Plc (RELX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $36.35 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $36.53 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $36.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.39 | $35.68 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.42 | $33.30 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $30.76 | -15.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 11 industry peers | $46.95 | +29.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $28.74 | -20.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 11 industry peers | $28.23 | -22.3% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 11 industry peers | $29.19 | -19.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 11 industry peers | $27.33 | -24.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $20.61 | -43.3% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $44.17 | +21.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $44.29 | +21.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $28.74 | -20.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 11 industry peers | $28.23 | -22.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $38.92 | +7.1% | 100% | 89 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $23 | $25 | $27 | $30 | $32 |
| Conservative (5%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $30 | $32 |
| Base Case (6.0%) | $24 | $26 | $28 | $31 | $33 |
| Bull Case (8%) | $24 | $27 | $29 | $31 | $33 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 37.52 | 39.14 | 28.90 | 44.10 | 6.02 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.03 | 31.52 | 24.57 | 36.06 | 4.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.88 | 23.15 | 18.01 | 29.07 | 4.05 |
| P/FCF | 32.68 | 32.94 | 25.17 | 38.72 | 5.65 |
| P/FFO | 26.41 | 23.12 | 19.71 | 38.29 | 6.46 |
| P/AFFO | 29.92 | 28.03 | 23.88 | 38.64 | 4.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 20.40 | 21.94 | 14.25 | 24.33 | 3.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.24 | 6.72 | 5.45 | 9.04 | 1.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RELX's fair value at $38.92 vs the current price of $36.35, implying +7.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $38.92 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $35.54 (P10) to $42.43 (P90), with a median of $38.94.
RELX's current P/E of 25.9x compares to the industry median of 27.9x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -7.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 37.5x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
7 analysts cover RELX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $26.00 (range: $24.00 — $28.00), implying -28.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RELX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (19.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 100.0% to approximately $37. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.