MODEL VERDICT
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $28.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $27.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $27.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $26.35 | Pending | +10.1% |
| Dec 12, 2025 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $27.35 | Pending | +6.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 46 analyst estimates | $49.88 | +76.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 52 industry peers | $43.81 | +54.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 42 industry peers | $51.18 | +80.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 38 industry peers | $67.70 | +139.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $62.10 | +119.4% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $63.49 | +124.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 52 industry peers | $34.42 | +21.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 52 industry peers | $40.17 | +41.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 42 industry peers | $51.18 | +80.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 38 industry peers | $67.70 | +139.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $54.74 | +93.4% | 100% | 91 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 5× | 7× (Current) | 9× | 11× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $18 | $22 | $31 | $40 | $49 |
| Conservative (7%) | $18 | $23 | $32 | $41 | $50 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $19 | $23 | $33 | $42 | $52 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $19 | $24 | $34 | $44 | $53 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.93 | 5.67 | 4.88 | 7.49 | 1.27 |
| EV/EBIT | 7.93 | 5.51 | 4.16 | 16.52 | 5.80 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.39 | 4.18 | 2.66 | 10.93 | 3.06 |
| P/FCF | 14.73 | 12.09 | 5.73 | 33.77 | 11.10 |
| P/FFO | 6.79 | 4.07 | 3.08 | 18.64 | 6.64 |
| P/TBV | 1.83 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 4.87 | 1.37 |
| P/AFFO | 17.30 | 17.54 | 7.61 | 26.51 | 7.91 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.83 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 4.87 | 1.37 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.01 | 1.72 | 1.06 | 4.35 | 1.08 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REPX's fair value at $54.74 vs the current price of $28.30, implying +93.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $54.74 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $42.67 (P10) to $62.31 (P90), with a median of $52.17.
REPX's current P/E of 6.6x compares to the industry median of 12.0x (42 peers in the group). This represents a -44.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.9x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover REPX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $36.00 (range: $36.00 — $36.00), implying +27.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: REPX trades at the 1900th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (5.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for REPX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.