MODEL VERDICT
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $36.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $35.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $33.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $34.51 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $39.54 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $62.19 | +70.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 7 industry peers | $50.74 | +39.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $134.35 | +268.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $35.18 | -3.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $76.49 | +109.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $29.19 | -19.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $38.22 | +4.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $45.48 | +24.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $133.40 | +266.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $33.39 | -8.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $61.12 | +67.7% | 100% | 82 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $32 | $32 | $39 | $55 | $71 |
| Conservative (7%) | $32 | $32 | $40 | $57 | $73 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $33 | $33 | $42 | $58 | $75 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $34 | $34 | $43 | $60 | $78 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 5.19 | 4.90 | 3.48 | 7.49 | 1.67 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.19 | 5.17 | 4.16 | 6.26 | 0.92 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.81 | 3.80 | 2.66 | 10.93 | 3.05 |
| P/FCF | 9.27 | 8.27 | 5.73 | 13.79 | 3.53 |
| P/FFO | 6.37 | 3.86 | 2.20 | 18.64 | 6.90 |
| P/TBV | 1.74 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 4.87 | 1.41 |
| P/AFFO | 16.50 | 17.54 | 4.38 | 26.51 | 9.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.74 | 1.30 | 0.82 | 4.87 | 1.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.97 | 1.62 | 1.06 | 4.35 | 1.10 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates REPX's fair value at $61.12 vs the current price of $36.44, implying +67.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $61.12 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $47.97 (P10) to $65.90 (P90), with a median of $56.58.
REPX's current P/E of 4.8x compares to the industry median of 17.7x (6 peers in the group). This represents a -72.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 5.2x over 4 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
3 analysts cover REPX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $37.00 (range: $36.00 — $38.00), implying +1.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that REPX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 4-year mean (2.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 9240.0% to approximately $3. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.