Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX)
Valuation Overview•Is Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Commands a premium valuation multiple over its peers, likely pricing in superior execution.
High-quality fundamentals with a strong composite quality score of 77/100, backed by robust profitability and solvency.
Analysts remain cautious, with consensus price targets indicating limited room for upside expansion.
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Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though solvency presents a headwind.
Wall Street is cautious, forecasting potential downside alongside robust expected earnings growth. This is paired with healthy capital returns, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
REPX demonstrates strong business quality with robust profitability and healthy margins. This is paired with a moderately leveraged but stable balance sheet.
The company demonstrates solid revenue growth (6.8% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (8.2% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 38.9% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $165.8M | -4.4% | +6.8% | +164.3% | +51.5% | |
| EBITDA | $111.9M | — | -0.2% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $87.4M | +80.9% | +10.9% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $4.11 | +78.2% | +8.2% | — | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$3.0M | -25.9% | +27.1% | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 59.8% | 54.1% | 59.7% | 32.7% |
| Operating Margin | 38.9% | 41.2% | 45.3% | -0.8% |
| Net Margin | 24.5% | 30.8% | 17.1% | -11.7% |
| FCF Margin | 12.7% | 22.6% | 19.6% | 1.2% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3'26Latest | $1.63 | $2.55 | +56.4% | ||
| Q2'26 | $1.10 | $1.02 | -7.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.83 | $1.35 | +62.7% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.97 | $0.77 | -20.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.00 | $1.44 | +44.0% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.63 | $1.62 | -0.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.66 | $0.96 | -42.2% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.57 | $1.21 | -22.9% |
Total return is +55.8% (1Y), outperforming the benchmark by +39.8%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | +57.2% | +44.0% | — |
| 1Y | +55.8% | +39.8% | +5.9% |
| 3YCAGR | +15.0% | -5.2% | +15.4% |
| 5YCAGR | +17.4% | +5.4% | +33.4% |
| 10YCAGR | +13.4% | +0.1% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.6x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) valuation, health, and returns.
Based on peer relative multiples, Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. appears Expensive versus peers compared to industry peers.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: Peer Relative Fair Value: $32.99 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $37.00 (implying -8.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 77/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 1.7 (distress zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 12.9%.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. pays a 3.9% dividend yield, covered by a 21% payout ratio with 5 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.4% buyback yield.
Riley Exploration Permian, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved -4.4% 1Y revenue growth and +78.2% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +6.8%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 3 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 25% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a -8.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. include: -23.0% 1-year max drawdown, elevated distress risk. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of -0.33x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.