MODEL VERDICT
RGC Resources, Inc. (RGCO)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $24.32 | +12.1% | 22% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBITDA 14 industry peers | $23.68 | +9.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $22.50 | +3.7% | 18% | B | Supplementary |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $21.69 | +0.0% | 12% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBIT 14 industry peers | $19.83 | -8.6% | 7% | B+ | Peer Data |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $3.91 | -82.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 14 industry peers | $23.06 | +6.3% | 4% | B | Data |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $24.32 | +12.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $22.82 | +5.2% | 100% | 82 | SLIGHTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 15× | 17× | 19× (Current) | 21× | 23× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
| Conservative (5%) | $18 | $21 | $23 | $26 | $28 |
| Base Case (1.4%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
| Bull Case (2%) | $18 | $20 | $22 | $25 | $27 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 21.71 | 18.58 | 17.29 | 31.54 | 5.89 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.31 | 20.10 | 16.00 | 25.14 | 3.89 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.12 | 13.77 | 12.34 | 22.22 | 3.38 |
| P/FFO | 11.57 | 10.30 | 9.14 | 16.03 | 2.83 |
| P/TBV | 2.26 | 2.16 | 1.88 | 2.90 | 0.41 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.26 | 2.16 | 1.88 | 2.90 | 0.41 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.73 | 2.53 | 2.07 | 3.52 | 0.54 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 21 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGCO's fair value at $22.82 vs the current price of $21.69, implying +5.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Undervalued. Confidence: 82/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $22.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $22.07 (P10) to $26.63 (P90), with a median of $24.24.
RGCO's current P/E of 18.7x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -10.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 21.7x over 6 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
3 analysts cover RGCO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (2), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 82/100, based on: data completeness (22), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RGCO.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.