MODEL VERDICT
Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $230.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $252.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $268.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $269.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $266.82 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $161.57 | -29.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $148.89 | -35.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 8 industry peers | $132.09 | -42.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $272.31 | +18.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 8 industry peers | $147.18 | -36.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $214.46 | -7.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 8 industry peers | $47.35 | -79.5% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $111.96 | -51.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $124.64 | -45.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 8 industry peers | $131.77 | -42.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $261.73 | +13.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $168.82 | -26.8% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 28× | 31× | 34× (Current) | 37× | 40× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $193 | $214 | $235 | $255 | $276 |
| Conservative (5%) | $197 | $218 | $239 | $260 | $281 |
| Base Case (7.8%) | $202 | $224 | $245 | $267 | $288 |
| Bull Case (11%) | $207 | $229 | $251 | $274 | $296 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.32 | 31.05 | 23.12 | 40.35 | 5.97 |
| EV/EBIT | 25.74 | 23.64 | 19.52 | 40.24 | 7.96 |
| EV/EBITDA | 16.57 | 16.82 | 12.96 | 21.31 | 3.21 |
| P/FCF | 27.17 | 25.41 | 19.25 | 43.43 | 9.04 |
| P/FFO | 18.58 | 18.21 | 14.36 | 24.03 | 3.44 |
| P/TBV | 2.75 | 2.74 | 2.15 | 3.49 | 0.39 |
| P/AFFO | 24.96 | 23.20 | 19.80 | 36.45 | 6.58 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.75 | 2.74 | 2.15 | 3.49 | 0.39 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 13.02 | 12.41 | 10.70 | 16.21 | 1.98 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RGLD's fair value at $168.82 vs the current price of $230.59, implying -26.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $168.82 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $157.31 (P10) to $214.22 (P90), with a median of $185.21.
RGLD's current P/E of 34.5x compares to the industry median of 19.7x (8 peers in the group). This represents a +74.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.3x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
28 analysts cover RGLD with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $304.80 (range: $264.00 — $335.00), implying +32.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (16), Hold (11), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RGLD trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.3×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RGLD's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (43.7%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1520.0% to approximately $196. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.