Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD)
Valuation Overview•Is Royal Gold, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 71/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Solid fundamental quality, though profitability presents a headwind.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside alongside robust expected earnings growth. However, capital return yields remain modest, anchored by a strong, well-covered dividend yield.
RGLD demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is supported by a highly conservative balance sheet featuring strong liquidity and pristine Altman Z safety.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (20.0% 3Y CAGR) paired with highly explosive earnings growth (22.6% EPS 3Y CAGR). This growth is supported by elite operational efficiency, sustaining an impressive 64.2% operating margin.
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $469.1M | +44.6% | +20.0% | +10.8% | +11.2% | |
| EBITDA | $388.0M | — | +21.7% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $281.1M | +40.4% | +25.0% | — | — | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $3.30 | +32.5% | +22.6% | +7.8% | — | |
| Free Cash Flow | $293.6M | +65.1% | — | +24.1% | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 44.4% | 80.2% | 81.9% | 79.0% |
| Operating Margin | 64.2% | 58.5% | 54.8% | 41.9% |
| Net Margin | 48.5% | 43.9% | 42.9% | 32.5% |
| FCF Margin | -18.7% | 65.8% | 29.9% | 37.0% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $2.77 | $3.11 | +12.3% | ||
| Q1'26 | $2.59 | $1.92 | -25.9% | ||
| Q4'25 | $2.15 | $2.06 | -4.2% | ||
| Q3'25 | $1.70 | $1.81 | +6.5% | ||
| Q2'25 | $1.43 | $1.51 | +5.6% | ||
| Q1'25 | $1.46 | $1.63 | +11.6% | ||
| Q4'24 | $1.32 | $1.46 | +10.6% | ||
| Q3'24 | $1.18 | $1.25 | +5.9% |
Total return is +21.0% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -4.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -2.4% | -11.7% | — |
| 1Y | +21.0% | -4.0% | +1.0% |
| 3YCAGR | +24.8% | +5.9% | +4.5% |
| 5YCAGR | +15.3% | +2.6% | +7.2% |
| 10YCAGR | +12.9% | -0.4% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Royal Gold, Inc. (RGLD) valuation, health, and returns.
Royal Gold, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $238.84)
Royal Gold, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $238.84 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $279.36 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $330.00 (implying +53.6% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Royal Gold, Inc. displays good financial health with a composite quality score of 71/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.1 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 4/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 9.2%.
Royal Gold, Inc. pays a 0.8% dividend yield, covered by a 25% payout ratio with 10 years of growth, supplemented by a 0.0% buyback yield.
Royal Gold, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Accelerating. The company achieved +44.6% 1Y revenue growth and +32.5% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +20.0%.
Wall Street consensus is Buy based on 28 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 1-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +53.6% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Royal Gold, Inc. include: -35.2% 1-year max drawdown. Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 1.29x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.