MODEL VERDICT
Ryman Hospitality Properties, Inc. (RHP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $106.22 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.47 | $102.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.45 | $103.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.48 | $101.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $101.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 12 REIT peers | $88.18 | -17.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| Price / AFFO 6 REIT peers | $51.77 | -51.3% | 20% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 12 industry peers | $89.96 | -15.3% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 11 industry peers | $265.42 | +149.9% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 9 industry peers | $18.58 | -82.5% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $110.65 | +4.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $112.04 | +5.5% | 5% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $55.23 | -48.0% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $86.90 | -18.2% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $129.64 | +22.1% | 100% | 89 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 24× | 26× | 28× (Current) | 30× | 32× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $94 | $102 | $110 | $118 | $125 |
| Conservative (7%) | $96 | $104 | $112 | $120 | $128 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $100 | $108 | $116 | $124 | $133 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $103 | $111 | $120 | $128 | $137 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 27.93 | 25.10 | 20.53 | 35.10 | 6.75 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.40 | 20.25 | 19.74 | 24.46 | 1.97 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.54 | 13.70 | 13.09 | 49.31 | 14.59 |
| P/FCF | 77.55 | 26.85 | 8.81 | 379.17 | 134.01 |
| P/FFO | 29.98 | 12.81 | 11.97 | 116.66 | 42.47 |
| P/TBV | 8.12 | 7.03 | 5.20 | 11.61 | 2.60 |
| P/AFFO | 67.06 | 30.21 | 18.25 | 236.65 | 85.06 |
| P/B Ratio | 7.86 | 7.03 | 5.15 | 11.61 | 2.84 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.02 |
| P/S Ratio | 3.72 | 2.84 | 2.42 | 7.10 | 1.81 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RHP's fair value at $129.64 vs the current price of $106.22, implying +22.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 89/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $129.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.70 (P10) to $208.82 (P90), with a median of $144.65.
RHP's current P/E of 28.2x compares to the industry median of 29.4x (9 peers in the group). This represents a -4.0% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 27.9x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
18 analysts cover RHP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $116.20 (range: $105.00 — $131.00), implying +9.4% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (14), Hold (4), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 89/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RHP trades at the 5000th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (27.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RHP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.