MODEL VERDICT
Transocean Ltd. (RIG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $6.84 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $6.11 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $5.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.16 | $6.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.15 | $6.52 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $8.18 | +19.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 4 industry peers | $3.08 | -55.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $1.02 | -85.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $6.31 | -7.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 4 industry peers | $3.01 | -56.0% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.54 | -4.5% | 100% | 57 | FAIRLY VALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBIT | 38.74 | 43.57 | 25.71 | 46.95 | 11.41 |
| EV/EBITDA | 22.43 | 21.29 | 9.97 | 38.29 | 11.10 |
| P/FCF | 10.53 | 9.68 | 4.79 | 17.97 | 5.53 |
| P/FFO | 9.22 | 9.27 | 3.32 | 15.02 | 6.04 |
| P/TBV | 0.29 | 0.30 | 0.13 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.28 | 0.30 | 0.12 | 0.47 | 0.12 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 1.08 | 0.45 | 1.72 | 0.42 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates RIG's fair value at $6.54 vs the current price of $6.84, implying -4.5% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 57/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.49 (P10) to $5.73 (P90), with a median of $4.61.
RIG's current P/E of -11.4x compares to the industry median of 14.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -178.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
64 analysts cover RIG with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.63 (range: $6.00 — $7.50), implying -3.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (24), Hold (26), Sell (14), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 57/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: --15 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RIG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.