MODEL VERDICT
Raymond James Financial, Inc. (RJF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $156.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $153.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $151.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $155.77 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.73 | $146.19 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $234.69 | +50.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $210.04 | +34.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $237.11 | +51.8% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $118.31 | -24.3% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $234.69 | +50.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $168.65 | +8.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $200.55 | +28.4% | 100% | 94 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (9%) | $123 | $145 | $168 | $190 | $213 |
| Conservative (14%) | $129 | $153 | $176 | $200 | $223 |
| Base Case (21.5%) | $138 | $163 | $188 | $213 | $238 |
| Bull Case (29%) | $146 | $173 | $199 | $226 | $252 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 14.99 | 15.31 | 12.48 | 16.40 | 1.34 |
| EV/EBIT | 8.97 | 9.59 | 5.77 | 10.98 | 1.74 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.33 | 8.92 | 5.54 | 9.86 | 1.51 |
| P/FCF | 13.53 | 14.77 | 3.23 | 29.34 | 10.86 |
| P/FFO | 13.55 | 13.91 | 11.24 | 14.68 | 1.19 |
| P/TBV | 2.79 | 2.92 | 2.04 | 3.37 | 0.51 |
| P/AFFO | 14.87 | 14.72 | 12.78 | 16.50 | 1.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.38 | 2.44 | 1.87 | 2.83 | 0.36 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.96 | 2.06 | 1.62 | 2.24 | 0.24 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RJF's fair value at $200.55 vs the current price of $156.20, implying +28.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $200.55 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $164.76 (P10) to $214.54 (P90), with a median of $188.89.
RJF's current P/E of 15.2x compares to the industry median of 22.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -33.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 15.0x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
24 analysts cover RJF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $169.00 (range: $166.00 — $172.00), implying +8.2% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (9), Hold (14), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RJF trades at the 2970th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (15.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RJF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (13.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 340.0% to approximately $151. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.