MODEL VERDICT
Relay Therapeutics, Inc. (RLAY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $10.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $8.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $8.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.14 | $8.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $7.99 | Pending | +8.3% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $1.14 | -88.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $0.87 | -91.5% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $8.18 | -20.3% | 100% | 48 | OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 2.51 | 2.18 | 0.76 | 4.91 | 1.45 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.51 | 2.18 | 0.76 | 4.91 | 1.45 |
| P/S Ratio | 405.04 | 76.68 | 45.35 | 1214.17 | 536.18 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 5 valuation metrics, the model estimates RLAY's fair value at $8.18 vs the current price of $10.26, implying -20.3% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $8.18 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%).
RLAY's current P/E of -6.4x compares to the industry median of 21.4x (48 peers in the group). This represents a -129.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
14 analysts cover RLAY with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $13.50 (range: $13.00 — $14.00), implying +31.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (13), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (0), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RLAY.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.