MODEL VERDICT
RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $7.97 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.09 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $8.04 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $7.85 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / FFO 10 REIT peers | $16.77 | +102.0% | 30% | A | REIT Primary |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $13.46 | +62.2% | 15% | A- | Peer Data |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $10.97 | +32.2% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 10 industry peers | $15.95 | +92.2% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $7.04 | -15.2% | 5% | A | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $19.30 | +132.5% | 3% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $18.47 | +122.5% | 2% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $13.29 | +60.1% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 27× | 29× | 31× (Current) | 33× | 35× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (-18.5%) | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 | $8 |
| Bull Case (-25%) | $5 | $6 | $6 | $7 | $7 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 43.80 | 36.63 | 15.05 | 105.90 | 35.98 |
| EV/EBIT | 20.77 | 20.03 | 15.92 | 27.26 | 4.16 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.20 | 10.88 | 2.18 | 34.37 | 12.15 |
| P/FCF | 6.58 | 6.69 | 5.49 | 7.64 | 0.91 |
| P/FFO | 6.20 | 7.04 | 1.35 | 8.97 | 2.89 |
| P/TBV | 0.82 | 0.83 | 0.68 | 0.95 | 0.11 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.82 | 0.82 | 0.68 | 0.95 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.21 | 1.62 | 1.14 | 5.01 | 1.36 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates RLJ's fair value at $13.29 vs the current price of $8.30, implying +60.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $13.29 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $11.90 (P10) to $18.16 (P90), with a median of $14.65.
RLJ's current P/E of 30.7x compares to the industry median of 26.1x (7 peers in the group). This represents a +18.0% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 43.8x over 5 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
18 analysts cover RLJ with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $6.00 (range: $6.00 — $6.00), implying -27.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (5), Hold (9), Sell (4), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (26), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for RLJ.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.