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RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ) Intrinsic Value

DCF-based fair value calculation with Bear, Base, and Bull scenarios

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RLJ Lodging Trust (RLJ)

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Intrinsic Value (DCF)

Current$7.65
→
Intrinsic$17.36
+127%
$7.91$17.36$35.32
Market implies 1% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests RLJ could have 127% upside at 8% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $8, the market prices in only 1% growth — below historical 8%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $8 → Bull $35. Current price implies expectations below the bear case — very conservative expectations.
Discount ↓Growth →4%6%8%10%
8%$23$26$30$33
10%$13$15$17$20
12%$7$9$11$12
14%$3$5$6$8

Bull Case

  • Bull case ($35) offers 362% upside at 10% growth, 9% discount
  • Price below even worst-case scenario — strong margin of safety
  • Market-implied growth (1%) ≤ historical CAGR (8%)

Bear Case

  • Bear case ($8) with 6% growth, 12% discount rate
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5-Year FFO Projection

Year 1$273.20M
Year 2$295.05M
Year 3$318.66M
Year 4$344.15M
Year 5$371.68M
Terminal$5.47B

📐 Model Inputs

Growth Rate8.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base FFO$252.96MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
ℹ️

DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. Uses FFO per NAREIT standards. See FAQ below for full methodology.

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Frequently Asked Questions

Is RLJ stock undervalued or overvalued?
🟢 UNDERVALUED

RLJ trades at $7.65 vs. our DCF-derived intrinsic value of $17.36, implying +125% upside. At a 10.0% WACC and 8.0% projected FCF growth, the market appears to be underpricing the present value of RLJ's future cash flows. The bear case ($9.11) still suggests upside, providing margin of safety.

What is RLJ's intrinsic value?

Using a 5-year DCF model: Base FCF of $253M, projected at 8.0% 5Y CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth), discounted at 10.0% WACC, with 3.0% terminal growth. Terminal value calculated via Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF₅ × (1+g) / (WACC−g). After deducting $1.93B net debt and dividing by 0.15B shares: Bear $9.11 | Base $17.36 | Bull $28.39. Current price $7.65 implies +125% to base case.

How is RLJ's fair value calculated?

DCF Methodology:

① Project FCF years 1-5 using 8.0% growth derived from 5-year historical CAGR (best of revenue, EPS, or FCF growth, with 8% floor and 25% cap).

② Calculate terminal value at year 5 using perpetuity growth model with g=3.0%.

③ Discount all cash flows to PV using WACC=10.0%.

④ Sum PV of explicit period + PV of terminal value = Enterprise Value ($4.59B).

⑤ Subtract net debt, divide by shares outstanding.

Sensitivity analysis available above—adjust WACC ±2% or growth ±3% to stress-test the valuation. Implied EV/FCF multiple: 18.2x.