MODEL VERDICT
RenaissanceRe Holdings Ltd. (RNR)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $299.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $309.38 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $315.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $310.76 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.50 | $303.03 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $546.30 | +82.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 4 industry peers | $575.21 | +92.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $369.53 | +23.5% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 3 industry peers | $109.58 | -63.4% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $520.93 | +74.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 4 bank peers | $592.74 | +98.0% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $646.18 | +115.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 3 industry peers | $757.78 | +153.2% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $460.95 | +54.0% | 100% | 80 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× | 4× | 5× (Current) | 7× | 9× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $254 | $254 | $317 | $444 | $571 |
| Conservative (19%) | $270 | $270 | $338 | $473 | $609 |
| Base Case (29.9%) | $294 | $294 | $368 | $515 | $662 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $318 | $318 | $397 | $556 | $715 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 7.73 | 7.07 | 3.75 | 12.03 | 3.61 |
| EV/EBIT | 5.10 | 4.21 | 2.96 | 8.25 | 2.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 5.38 | 3.99 | 3.16 | 9.32 | 2.73 |
| P/FCF | 4.01 | 3.89 | 1.82 | 7.06 | 1.64 |
| P/FFO | 7.37 | 6.00 | 3.85 | 12.27 | 3.63 |
| P/TBV | 0.79 | 0.76 | 0.72 | 0.96 | 0.09 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.75 | 0.73 | 0.60 | 0.94 | 0.11 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.39 | 1.52 | 0.99 | 2.03 | 0.38 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates RNR's fair value at $460.95 vs the current price of $299.30, implying +54.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 80/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $460.95 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $378.37 (P10) to $498.49 (P90), with a median of $439.45.
RNR's current P/E of 5.3x compares to the industry median of 9.6x (4 peers in the group). This represents a -45.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 7.7x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
28 analysts cover RNR with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $308.33 (range: $267.00 — $340.00), implying +3.0% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (19), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 80/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 26.9% is 16.9 percentage points above the 5-year average (10.1%), with a Z-score of +1.0σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$164. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RNR's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (10.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 4530.0% to approximately $164. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.