MODEL VERDICT
Rockwell Automation, Inc. (ROK)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $407.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $401.18 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $415.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $397.40 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.22 | $396.00 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $256.78 | -37.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $308.41 | -24.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $237.64 | -41.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $317.68 | -22.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 6 industry peers | $345.99 | -15.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $337.73 | -17.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 7 industry peers | $297.14 | -27.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $323.39 | -20.6% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $237.19 | -41.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $317.62 | -22.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $302.75 | -25.7% | 100% | 91 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 45× | 49× | 53× (Current) | 57× | 61× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $352 | $383 | $415 | $446 | $477 |
| Conservative (5%) | $362 | $395 | $427 | $459 | $491 |
| Base Case (-2.6%) | $336 | $366 | $396 | $426 | $456 |
| Bull Case (-4%) | $333 | $362 | $392 | $421 | $451 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 33.87 | 32.36 | 25.98 | 50.73 | 8.08 |
| EV/EBIT | 30.32 | 28.20 | 21.88 | 43.97 | 8.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 25.94 | 22.97 | 16.99 | 49.10 | 10.71 |
| P/FCF | 35.02 | 32.40 | 23.04 | 51.20 | 9.66 |
| P/FFO | 27.11 | 25.77 | 21.91 | 36.85 | 4.75 |
| P/AFFO | 31.16 | 29.18 | 24.30 | 43.65 | 6.28 |
| P/B Ratio | 19.57 | 11.86 | 8.90 | 59.82 | 18.30 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.45 | 3.96 | 3.61 | 5.84 | 0.83 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates ROK's fair value at $302.75 vs the current price of $407.52, implying -25.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 91/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $302.75 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $275.33 (P10) to $346.92 (P90), with a median of $310.39.
ROK's current P/E of 53.1x compares to the industry median of 31.0x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +71.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 33.9x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
39 analysts cover ROK with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $436.56 (range: $391.00 — $470.00), implying +7.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (24), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 91/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (12), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: ROK trades at the 8120th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (33.9×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that ROK's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.8σ, meaning margins are 0.8 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1050.0% to approximately $365. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.