Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) — DCF ValuationIntrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$47.43
→
Intrinsic$74.64
+57%
$46.33$74.64$128.43
Market implies 2% growth for 5 years
DCF analysis suggests RPRX could have 57% upside at 11% growth — verify assumptions match your view.
At $47, the market prices in only 2% growth — below historical 11%, suggesting low expectations.
Range: Bear $46 → Bull $128. Current price implies expectations below the base case, but well above the bear case.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 7% | 9% | 11% | 13% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $92 | $101 | $112 | $123 |
| 10% | $61 | $68 | $75 | $82 |
| 12% | $44 | $49 | $54 | $60 |
| 14% | $33 | $37 | $41 | $46 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($128) offers 171% upside at 13% growth, 9% discount
- 36% margin of safety vs. base case estimate
- Market-implied growth (2%) ≤ historical CAGR (11%)
Bear Case
- Bear case ($46) implies 2% downside at 9% growth, 12% discount
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$2.76B
Year 2$3.05B
Year 3$3.38B
Year 4$3.74B
Year 5$4.14B
Terminal$60.85B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate10.7%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$2.49BTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.