Upside case
Bull case
$117+121.4%
RPRX would need investors to value it at roughly 23x earnings — about 13x more generous than today's 10x forward P/E. That requires meaningful multiple expansion on top of continued earnings growth.
Analysis OverviewBuyUpdated Jun 18, 2026
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) Stock Analysis
Wall Street verdict, consensus price target, and analyst rating breakdown — everything needed to frame the risk/reward at today's price.
Analyst consensus
Buy
Covering
11
analysts
11 bullish · 0 bearish · 11 covering RPRX
Strong Buy
0
Buy
11
Hold
0
Sell
0
Strong Sell
0
Consensus Target
$57
+7.0% vs today
Scenario Range
$56 – $117
Model bear to bull value window
Coverage
11
Published analyst ratings
Valuation Context
10.3x
Forward P/E · Market cap $22.7B
RPRX price targets
Three scenarios for where RPRX stock could go
Current
~$53
Confidence
41 / 100
Updated
Jun 18, 2026
Where we are now
Current · $53
Bear
$56
Base
$89
Bull
$117
Market caseClosest to today
Base case
$89+68.1%
At 17x on FY1 earnings, the base case reflects a reasonable but not stretched valuation. It prices in continued growth without assuming an exceptional setup.
Stress case
Bear case
$56+5.9%
The bear case assumes sentiment or fundamentals disappoint enough to push RPRX down roughly 6% from the current price.
Not financial advice. Model confidence reflects internal scenario assumptions, not a guarantee of returns. Past performance does not predict future results.
Royalty Pharma plc
RPRX · NASDAQHealthcareBiotechnologyDecember year-end
Royalty Pharma is a specialized investment firm that acquires royalty interests in approved and development-stage biopharmaceutical products. It generates revenue primarily from royalty payments on approximately 35 marketed therapies — with its largest assets including cystic fibrosis drug Trikafta and HIV treatment Biktarvy — which provide predictable cash flows. The company's competitive advantage lies in its deep expertise in valuing complex biopharmaceutical royalties and its extensive industry relationships that provide access to proprietary deal flow.
Market Cap
$22.7B
Revenue TTM
$2.4B
Net Income TTM
$828M
Net Margin
33.9%
RPRX Revenue and Earnings Performance
Quarterly beat-or-miss track record against analyst estimates, plus forward revenue and EPS outlook for the next two fiscal years.
EPS Beat Rate
75%Exceptional
12 quarters tracked
Revenue Beat Rate
25%Exceptional
vs consensus estimates
Avg EPS Surprise
+8.4%
above Street consensus
Beat / Miss Record
BeatMissLeft = EPS · Right = Revenue
Q3 2025
Q4 2025
Q1 2026
Q2 2026
Last 4 Quarters
EPS beats: 4 of 4Q3 2025
EPS
$1.14/$1.03
Revenue
$579M/$673M
Q4 2025
EPS
$1.17/$0.99
Revenue
$609M/$717M
Q1 2026
EPS
$1.46/$1.29
Revenue
$874M/$807M
Q2 2026
EPS
$1.30/$1.21
Revenue
$925M/$882M
| Quarter | EPS (Actual / Est) | EPS Surprise | Revenue (Actual / Est) | Rev Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2025 | $1.14/$1.03 | +10.7% | $579M/$673M | -14.0% |
| Q4 2025 | $1.17/$0.99 | +17.7% | $609M/$717M | -15.1% |
| Q1 2026 | $1.46/$1.29 | +13.2% | $874M/$807M | +8.3% |
| Q2 2026 | $1.30/$1.21 | +7.4% | $925M/$882M | +4.9% |
FY1–FY2 Estimates
Revenue Outlook
FY1
$2.6B
+7.6% YoY
FY2
$2.9B
+10.8% YoY
EPS Outlook
FY1
$2.53
+71.2% YoY
FY2
$2.92
+15.3% YoY
Trailing FCF (TTM)$2.7B
FCF Margin: 108.7%
Next Earnings
August 5, 2026
Expected EPS
$1.27
Expected Revenue
$790M
RPRX beat EPS estimates in 4 of 4 tracked quarters. A perfect track record raises the bar for the upcoming report.
RPRX Revenue Breakdown by Segment
Product and geographic revenue mix from the latest annual disclosure, with year-over-year growth by segment.
Latest disclosure
FY 2025
Total disclosed revenue $2.4B
Product Mix
Latest annual revenue by segment or product family
Financial Royalty Assets
95.1%
+5.2% YoY
Tap, hover, or focus a slice to inspect segment detail.
Geographic Mix
Latest annual revenue by reported region
Segment breakdown not available for this company.
Financial Royalty Assets is the largest disclosed segment at 95.1% of FY 2025 revenue, up 5.2% YoY.
RPRX Valuation Snapshot
Current multiples compared to the S&P 500, the company's sector, and its own five-year average.
Relative Value Signal
Cheap versus peers
Fair value est. $88 — implies +65.5% from today's price.
Upside to Fair Value
65.5%
potential upside
Deep DiscountFair ValueVery Expensive
vs S&P 500 Trailing P/E
RPRX
29.4x
vs
S&P 500
24.4x
+20% premium
vs Healthcare Trailing P/E
RPRX
29.4x
vs
Healthcare
22.1x
+33% premium
vs RPRX 5Y Avg P/E
Today
29.4x
vs
5Y Average
18.2x
+62% premium
Forward PE
10.3x
S&P 500
18.8x
-45%
Healthcare
18.3x
-44%
5Y Avg
—
—
Trailing PE
29.4x
S&P 500
24.4x
+20%
Healthcare
22.1x
+33%
5Y Avg
18.2x
+62%
PEG Ratio
4.17x
S&P 500
1.66x
+151%
Healthcare
1.59x
+162%
5Y Avg
—
—
EV/EBITDA
19.8x
S&P 500
15.2x
+30%
Healthcare
14.2x
+40%
5Y Avg
29.8x
-33%
Price/FCF
9.1x
S&P 500
20.7x
-56%
Healthcare
18.5x
-51%
5Y Avg
7.7x
+19%
Price/Sales
9.5x
S&P 500
3.1x
+209%
Healthcare
2.6x
+262%
5Y Avg
8.0x
+19%
Dividend Yield
1.28%
S&P 500
1.91%
-33%
Healthcare
1.50%
-15%
5Y Avg
1.91%
-33%
| Metric | RPRX | S&P 500 | Healthcare | 5Y Avg RPRX |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward PE | 10.3x | 18.8x-45% | 18.3x-44% | — |
| Trailing PE | 29.4x | 24.4x+20% | 22.1x+33% | 18.2x+62% |
| PEG Ratio | 4.17x | 1.66x+151% | 1.59x+162% | — |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.8x | 15.2x+30% | 14.2x+40% | 29.8x-33% |
| Price/FCF | 9.1x | 20.7x-56% | 18.5x-51% | 7.7x+19% |
| Price/Sales | 9.5x | 3.1x+209% | 2.6x+262% | 8.0x+19% |
| Dividend Yield | 1.28% | 1.91% | 1.50% | 1.91% |
RPRX trades above S&P 500 benchmarks on 4 of 6 measured multiples — is elevated on some multiples, but competitive on others — a mixed valuation picture.
Forward P/E and PEG reflect analyst consensus estimates. Historical averages use trailing ratios where forward data is unavailable.S&P 500 and sector benchmarks both use trailing median P/E — similar readings indicate the broader index and sector are priced alike.
Open valuation toolRPRX Financial Health
Verdict
Strong
RPRX generates $2.7B in free cash flow at a 108.7% margin — returns 6.7% of market cap to shareholders annually.
Cash Engine
Revenue, margins, and cash generation
Revenue (TTM)
Trailing-twelve-month sales base
$2.4B
Revenue Growth
TTM vs prior year
+7.8%
Gross Margin
Gross profit as a share of revenue
74.1%
Operating Margin
Operating income divided by revenue
65.1%
Net Margin
Net income divided by revenue
33.9%
EPS (TTM)
Diluted earnings per share, trailing twelve months
$1.48
Free Cash Flow (TTM)
Cash generation after capex
$2.7B
FCF Margin
FCF as share of revenue — the primary cash quality signal
108.7%
Capital Quality
ROIC, leverage, and debt serviceability
ROIC
Return on invested capital — primary competitive quality signal
6.7%
ROA
Return on assets, trailing twelve months
4.3%
Cash & Equivalents
Liquid assets on the balance sheet
$619M
Net Debt
Total debt minus cash
$8.3B
Debt Serviceability
Net debt as a multiple of annual free cash flow
3.1× FCF
~3.1 years to full repayment at current FCF run-rate
ROE
Return on equity, trailing twelve months
8.5%
Shareholder Returns
How capital is returned to owners
Total shareholder yield
6.7%
Dividend
1.3%
Buyback
5.4%
Share Repurchases
Trailing buyback outflow — dollar magnitude of capital returned
$1.2B
Dividend / Share
Annualized trailing dividend per share
$0.68
Payout Ratio
Share of earnings distributed as dividends
49.1%
Shares Outstanding
Declining as buybacks retire shares
428M
All figures from the trailing twelve months. ROIC uses invested capital (equity + net debt).
Open full ratios pageRPRX Stock Risk Factors
Key factors that could pressure the stock price, compress the multiple, or weigh on future results.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Medium
Guidance uncertainty
Royalty Pharma's 2026 Portfolio Receipts guidance range indicates potential variability in future performance.
Lower
Foreign exchange risk
2025 guidance assumes negligible foreign exchange impact, but fluctuations could affect earnings.
Medium
Market sentiment risk
Current price target implies limited upside, reflecting cautious analyst sentiment.
High Risk
Revenue concentration risk
Dependence on Portfolio Receipts exposes the company to volatility in royalty streams.
Lower
Share buyback execution
Ongoing repurchase program progress may not sufficiently offset broader market pressures.
These are risk mechanisms, not predictions. The key question is which would force a cut to earnings estimates or a lower multiple than the market currently prices in.
Why RPRX Stock Could Outperform
Structural drivers behind the upside case and why the stock could outperform over the next 12 months.
AI analysis · updated June 18, 2026
Strong Financial Performance
Royalty Pharma reported robust Q1 2026 results with 10% YoY growth in portfolio receipts and raised full-year 2026 guidance, indicating strong financial health.
Diversified Portfolio
The company holds a diversified portfolio of 35+ marketed therapies and 15+ development-stage assets, reducing risk and providing stable cash flows.
Asset-Light Business Model
Royalty Pharma's asset-light model provides exposure to pharmaceutical upside without the inherent risks of R&D, making it a resilient investment.
Recurring Revenue Growth
Recurring royalty receipts grew by 13% YoY, driven by a diversified portfolio and new therapies, ensuring consistent revenue streams.
Market Leadership
As the largest buyer of biopharmaceutical royalties, Royalty Pharma holds a dominant position in the market, leveraging its scale for strategic advantages.
A real bull case compounds — each driver matters most when it strengthens margins, supports capital returns, and keeps the company above the market's minimum growth bar simultaneously.
RPRX Stock Price Performance
52-week range context and price returns across multiple time horizons. Dividend contribution is shown separately in the Capital Return section.
Current Price
$52.96
52W Range Position
84%
52-Week Range
Current price plotted between the 52-week low and high.
52-Week Low
$34.08
+55.4% from the low
52-Week High
$56.50
-6.3% from the high
1 Month
+1.71%
3 Month
+15.66%
YTD
+36.3%
1 Year
+51.7%
3Y CAGR
+19.0%
5Y CAGR
+3.8%
10Y CAGR
+1.8%
Range context matters because valuation compression and earnings misses rarely hit from the same starting point. A stock already far below its high can still fall, but it is no longer carrying the same embedded optimism as one pressing a fresh peak.
RPRX vs Peers
Valuation, growth, and margin comparison against the closest publicly traded peers for this company.
Peer Set
Accurate peer set
Forward PE
10.3x
vs 20.8x median
-50% below peer median
Revenue Growth
+7.6%
vs +14.3% median
-47% below peer median
Net Margin
33.9%
vs 65.1% median
-48% below peer median
| Company | Mkt Cap | Fwd PE | Rev Grw | Margin | Rating | Upside |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RPR RPRX Royalty Pharma plc | $22.7B | 10.3x | +7.6% | 33.9% | Buy | +7.0% |
RCU RCUS Arcus Biosciences, Inc. | $2.4B | — | +35.0% | -156.4% | Buy | +27.5% |
OR OR OR Royalties Inc. | $6.5B | 16.7x | +12.5% | 78.1% | Buy | +46.3% |
WPM WPM Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. | $55.7B | 22.7x | +15.7% | 65.5% | Buy | +38.7% |
RGL RGLD Royal Gold, Inc. | $14.9B | 18.8x | +13.6% | 48.5% | Buy | +53.6% |
FNV FNV Franco-Nevada Corporation | $42.3B | 24.4x | +14.3% | 65.1% | Buy | +36.4% |
This peer comparison reflects companies with similar business models, product lines, or market positioning, supplemented by industry grouping when direct matches are limited.
RPRX Dividend and Capital Return
RPRX returns capital mainly through $1.2B/year in buybacks (5.4% buyback yield), with a modest 1.28% dividend — combining for 6.7% total shareholder yield. The dividend has grown for 6 consecutive years.
Dividend SustainableFCF Well Covered
Total Shareholder Yield
6.7%
Dividend + buyback return per year
Buyback Yield
5.4%
Dividend Yield
1.28%
Payout Ratio
49.1%
How RPRX Splits Its Return
Div 1.28%
Buyback 5.4%
Dividend 1.28%Buybacks 5.4%
Dividend Profile
Yield, cadence, and growth quality
Dividend / Share
Trailing annualized cash dividend
$0.68
Growth Streak
Consecutive years of dividend increases
6Y
3Y Div CAGR
5.0%
5Y Div CAGR
24.0%
Ex-Dividend Date
—
Payment Cadence
Quarterly
4 payments over the last 12 months
Buyback Engine
How much per-share support comes from repurchases
Repurchases (TTM)
Cash used for buybacks in the latest trailing period
$1.2B
Estimated Shares Retired
23M
Approx. Share Reduction
5.4%
Shares Outstanding
Current diluted share count from the screening snapshot
428M
At 5.4%/year, buybacks mechanically lift EPS even with flat earnings — each remaining share represents a slightly larger piece of the company.
| Year | Div / Share | YoY Grw | BB Yield | Total Yield |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | $0.47 | — | — | — |
| 2025 | $0.88 | +4.8% | 5.7% | 7.4% |
| 2024 | $0.84 | +5.0% | 1.5% | 4.0% |
| 2023 | $0.80 | +5.3% | 1.8% | 3.9% |
| 2022 | $0.76 | +11.8% | 0.0% | 1.5% |
FAQ
7 questionsRPRX Investor Questions
Common questions answered from live analyst data and company financials.
01Is Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) stock a buy or sell in 2026?
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) is rated Buy by Wall Street analysts as of 2026. Of 11 analysts covering the stock, 11 rate it Buy or Strong Buy, 0 rate it Hold, and 0 rate it Sell or Strong Sell. The consensus 12-month price target is $57, implying +7.0% from the current price of $53. The bear case scenario is $56 and the bull case is $117.
02What is the RPRX stock price target for 2026?
The Wall Street consensus price target for RPRX is $57 based on 11 analyst estimates. The high-end target is $63 (+19.0% from today), and the low-end target is $50 (-5.6%). The base case model target is $89.
03Is Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) stock overvalued in 2026?
RPRX trades at 10.3x times forward earnings. The stock trades at a notable premium to the broad market, which is typical for businesses with strong free cash flow and above-average growth expectations. Based on current multiples versus the peer group, the relative model signals cheap versus peers. Whether the stock is over or undervalued ultimately depends on whether consensus earnings estimates are achievable.
04What are the main risks for Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) stock in 2026?
The primary risks for RPRX in 2026 are: (1) Revenue concentration risk — Dependence on Portfolio Receipts exposes the company to volatility in royalty streams. (2) Guidance uncertainty — Royalty Pharma's 2026 Portfolio Receipts guidance range indicates potential variability in future performance. (3) Market sentiment risk — Current price target implies limited upside, reflecting cautious analyst sentiment. Each factor has the potential to pressure earnings or compress the stock's valuation multiple.
05What is Royalty Pharma plc's revenue and earnings forecast?
Analyst consensus estimates RPRX will report consensus revenue of $2.6B (+7.6% year-over-year) and EPS of $2.53 (+71.2% year-over-year) for the upcoming fiscal year. The following year, analysts project $2.9B in revenue.
06When does Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) report its next earnings?
Royalty Pharma plc is expected to report its next earnings on approximately 2026-08-05. Consensus expects EPS of $1.27 and revenue of $790M. Over recent quarters, RPRX has beaten EPS estimates 75% of the time.
07How much free cash flow does Royalty Pharma plc generate?
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) generated $2.7B in free cash flow over the trailing twelve months — a free cash flow margin of 108.7%. RPRX returns capital to shareholders through dividends (1.3% yield) and share repurchases ($1.2B TTM).