MODEL VERDICT
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX)
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX) — Relative ValuationPeer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Royalty Pharma plc (RPRX)
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $46.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.12 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $45.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $44.21 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $40.17 | Pending | +9.7% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 57 analyst estimates | $124.39 | +169.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 47 industry peers | $42.01 | -9.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 48 industry peers | $37.47 | -18.9% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 46 industry peers | $117.69 | +154.7% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 46 industry peers | $53.62 | +16.0% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 48 industry peers | $92.59 | +100.4% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 130 industry peers | $25.32 | -45.2% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 130 industry peers | $42.45 | -8.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 47 industry peers | $43.06 | -6.8% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 47 industry peers | $127.96 | +176.9% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $73.64 | +59.4% | 100% | 79 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 22× | 24× | 26× (Current) | 28× | 30× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $40 | $44 | $47 | $51 | $54 |
| Conservative (5%) | $41 | $45 | $49 | $52 | $56 |
| Base Case (-7.3%) | $36 | $40 | $43 | $46 | $50 |
| Bull Case (-10%) | $35 | $39 | $42 | $45 | $48 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 82.70 | 20.49 | 11.09 | 404.09 | 157.55 |
| EV/EBIT | 22.13 | 14.59 | 11.97 | 54.34 | 18.06 |
| EV/EBITDA | 24.69 | 15.08 | 11.97 | 72.63 | 23.61 |
| P/FCF | 7.62 | 8.13 | 5.47 | 9.55 | 1.67 |
| P/FFO | 134.02 | 25.72 | 19.46 | 356.87 | 193.02 |
| P/TBV | 1.91 | 1.82 | 1.61 | 2.46 | 0.34 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.79 | 1.75 | 1.47 | 2.23 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.86 | 7.48 | 6.69 | 9.17 | 1.06 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RPRX's fair value at $73.64 vs the current price of $46.21, implying +59.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 79/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $73.64 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $57.20 (P10) to $112.37 (P90), with a median of $82.50.
RPRX's current P/E of 26.0x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (48 peers in the group). This represents a +23.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 82.7x over 6 years. Signal: Premium.
11 analysts cover RPRX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $49.40 (range: $42.00 — $61.00), implying +6.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (10), Hold (1), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 79/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RPRX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (39.0%), the model estimates fair value drops by 28130.0% to approximately $176. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.