MODEL VERDICT
RTX Corporation (RTX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $173.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $174.26 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $196.42 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $198.39 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $201.56 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $187.20 | +7.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 9 industry peers | $156.99 | -9.8% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $174.15 | +0.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $138.50 | -20.4% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $124.25 | -28.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $126.79 | -27.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 12 industry peers | $136.56 | -21.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 12 industry peers | $131.79 | -24.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $174.15 | +0.1% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $140.63 | -19.2% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $168.04 | -3.4% | 100% | 87 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 29× | 32× | 35× (Current) | 38× | 41× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $150 | $165 | $181 | $196 | $211 |
| Conservative (7%) | $153 | $169 | $185 | $201 | $217 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $158 | $175 | $191 | $207 | $224 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $163 | $180 | $197 | $214 | $231 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 30.59 | 33.11 | 13.78 | 37.73 | 8.84 |
| EV/EBIT | 40.63 | 32.92 | 25.06 | 86.82 | 21.36 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.67 | 19.39 | 16.44 | 22.98 | 2.51 |
| P/FCF | 32.01 | 31.33 | 12.16 | 59.24 | 14.19 |
| P/FFO | 51.51 | 17.06 | 9.57 | 260.31 | 92.16 |
| P/AFFO | 25.08 | 26.17 | 14.22 | 30.86 | 6.32 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.14 | 1.97 | 1.31 | 3.71 | 0.78 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.02 | 1.93 | 1.68 | 2.81 | 0.40 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates RTX's fair value at $168.04 vs the current price of $173.99, implying -3.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 87/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $168.04 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $147.66 (P10) to $185.53 (P90), with a median of $166.24.
RTX's current P/E of 35.1x compares to the industry median of 35.1x (11 peers in the group). This represents a -0.1% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 30.6x over 6 years. Signal: Fair Value.
26 analysts cover RTX with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $224.89 (range: $204.00 — $240.00), implying +29.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 87/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 8.0% is 3.1 percentage points above the 6-year average (7.3%), with a Z-score of +1.1σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$139. (2) Multiple compression: RTX trades at the 3780th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (30.6×) would imply significant downside. (3) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RTX's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.1σ, meaning margins are 1.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 6-year mean (7.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2040.0% to approximately $139. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.