MODEL VERDICT
Rush Enterprises, Inc. (RUSHA)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $72.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $74.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $73.93 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $69.96 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $71.15 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 8 analyst estimates | $42.52 | -41.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $60.26 | -17.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $52.06 | -28.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 6 industry peers | $88.27 | +20.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $48.99 | -32.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 6 industry peers | $120.53 | +65.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $24.82 | -66.0% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $63.89 | -12.5% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $43.84 | -39.9% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $50.11 | -31.3% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $73.19 | +0.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $58.59 | -19.7% | 100% | 93 | OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 18× | 20× | 22× (Current) | 24× | 26× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $61 | $68 | $75 | $82 | $89 |
| Conservative (7%) | $63 | $70 | $77 | $84 | $91 |
| Base Case (10.3%) | $65 | $72 | $79 | $87 | $94 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $67 | $74 | $82 | $89 | $97 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 11.69 | 12.12 | 7.63 | 16.50 | 3.50 |
| EV/EBIT | 12.19 | 12.71 | 8.38 | 15.45 | 2.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.97 | 7.51 | 5.99 | 12.25 | 2.07 |
| P/FCF | 18.31 | 8.74 | 2.53 | 58.19 | 20.83 |
| P/FFO | 6.87 | 5.43 | 3.65 | 13.00 | 3.12 |
| P/TBV | 2.17 | 2.24 | 1.36 | 2.89 | 0.54 |
| P/AFFO | 23.28 | 15.65 | 8.60 | 49.15 | 17.97 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.67 | 1.69 | 1.00 | 2.23 | 0.45 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.44 | 0.42 | 0.20 | 0.59 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates RUSHA's fair value at $58.59 vs the current price of $72.99, implying -19.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Overvalued. Confidence: 93/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $58.59 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.14 (P10) to $78.69 (P90), with a median of $63.21.
RUSHA's current P/E of 22.3x compares to the industry median of 15.9x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +40.2% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 11.7x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
17 analysts cover RUSHA with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $82.00 (range: $73.00 — $88.00), implying +12.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 93/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RUSHA trades at the 6150th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (11.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RUSHA's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (5.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1980.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.