MODEL VERDICT
Royal Bank of Canada (RY)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.34 | $179.54 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.37 | $175.33 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.35 | $178.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.36 | $175.95 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.27 | $171.91 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 13 industry peers | $250.41 | +39.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 13 industry peers | $167.83 | -6.5% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 13 bank peers | $150.02 | -16.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $275.87 | +53.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 13 industry peers | $250.41 | +39.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 13 analyst estimates | $186.36 | +3.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $188.03 | +4.7% | 100% | 92 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $192 | $222 | $252 | $281 | $311 |
| Conservative (8%) | $198 | $229 | $259 | $289 | $320 |
| Base Case (12.5%) | $206 | $238 | $269 | $301 | $333 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $214 | $247 | $280 | $313 | $346 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.04 | 9.80 | 8.50 | 12.10 | 1.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.75 | 34.81 | 25.46 | 43.03 | 5.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.30 | 30.69 | 22.62 | 37.19 | 5.08 |
| P/FCF | 5.50 | 6.03 | 0.86 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| P/FFO | 8.36 | 8.13 | 7.17 | 10.25 | 0.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.70 | 1.69 | 1.46 | 2.14 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 9.69 | 9.56 | 8.29 | 11.34 | 0.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.73 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.24 | 2.63 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RY's fair value at $188.03 vs the current price of $179.54, implying +4.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 92/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $188.03 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $170.17 (P10) to $196.21 (P90), with a median of $182.97.
RY's current P/E of 17.3x compares to the industry median of 17.8x (13 peers in the group). This represents a -2.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.0x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
29 analysts cover RY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $124.85 (range: $94.00 — $193.00), implying -30.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 92/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RY trades at the 6190th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 390.0% to approximately $173. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.