MODEL VERDICT
Royal Bank of Canada (RY) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $167.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $172.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $169.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $175.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.19 | $169.19 | Below threshold | +2.9% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 21 industry peers | $201.73 | +20.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 21 industry peers | $156.79 | -6.2% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 21 bank peers | $139.51 | -16.6% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 19 industry peers | $205.26 | +22.7% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 21 industry peers | $201.24 | +20.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 21 analyst estimates | $167.23 | +0.0% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $159.56 | -4.6% | 100% | 94 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $178 | $207 | $237 | $266 | $296 |
| Conservative (8%) | $183 | $213 | $244 | $274 | $305 |
| Base Case (12.5%) | $190 | $222 | $254 | $285 | $317 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $198 | $231 | $264 | $296 | $329 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.04 | 9.80 | 8.50 | 12.10 | 1.19 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.75 | 34.81 | 25.46 | 43.03 | 5.99 |
| EV/EBITDA | 31.30 | 30.69 | 22.62 | 37.19 | 5.08 |
| P/FCF | 5.50 | 6.03 | 0.86 | 9.51 | 3.06 |
| P/FFO | 8.36 | 8.13 | 7.17 | 10.25 | 0.99 |
| P/TBV | 1.70 | 1.69 | 1.46 | 2.14 | 0.23 |
| P/AFFO | 9.69 | 9.56 | 8.29 | 11.34 | 0.98 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.39 | 1.35 | 1.22 | 1.73 | 0.18 |
| Div Yield | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.24 | 2.63 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates RY's fair value at $159.56 vs the current price of $167.23, implying -4.6% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 94/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $159.56 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $152.57 (P10) to $173.94 (P90), with a median of $163.02.
RY's current P/E of 16.2x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (21 peers in the group). This represents a +13.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.0x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
29 analysts cover RY with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $124.85 (range: $94.00 — $193.00), implying -25.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (12), Hold (16), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 94/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: RY trades at the 6670th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.0×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RY's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (18.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 320.0% to approximately $173. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.