MODEL VERDICT
7.125% Fixed-Rate Reset Subordinated Debentures due 2052 (RZC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.50 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.49 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $25.32 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $229.02 | +798.1% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 7 industry peers | $640.66 | +2412.4% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Dividend Yield 7 industry peers | $162.67 | +537.9% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $220.62 | +765.2% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 7 bank peers | $785.53 | +2980.5% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 7 industry peers | $757.95 | +2872.4% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $363.80 | +1326.7% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $251.20 | +885.1% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 4× | 6× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $44 | $44 | $44 | $44 | $66 |
| Conservative (5%) | $45 | $45 | $45 | $45 | $68 |
| Base Case (-4.7%) | $41 | $41 | $41 | $41 | $61 |
| Bull Case (-6%) | $40 | $40 | $40 | $40 | $60 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2.58 | 2.40 | 1.94 | 3.40 | 0.74 |
| EV/EBIT | 2.82 | 2.68 | 2.26 | 3.51 | 0.63 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.42 | 3.35 | 2.67 | 4.22 | 0.78 |
| P/FCF | 0.64 | 0.43 | 0.18 | 1.31 | 0.59 |
| P/FFO | 2.43 | 2.26 | 1.86 | 3.17 | 0.67 |
| P/TBV | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.25 | 0.05 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.20 | 0.19 | 0.16 | 0.24 | 0.04 |
| Div Yield | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.09 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 0.11 | 0.02 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 20 valuation metrics, the model estimates RZC's fair value at $251.20 vs the current price of $25.50, implying +885.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $251.20 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $209.17 (P10) to $282.07 (P90), with a median of $244.94.
RZC's current P/E of 2.4x compares to the industry median of 21.3x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -88.9% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2.6x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for RZC.
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that RZC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 3-year mean (4.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1870.0% to approximately $30. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.