MODEL VERDICT
Silvercrest Asset Management Group Inc. (SAMG)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 104 industry peers | $11.70 | -22.2% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 117 industry peers | $12.88 | -14.3% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 110 bank peers | $4.30 | -71.4% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 91 industry peers | $13.08 | -13.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 105 industry peers | $11.72 | -22.0% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 98 analyst estimates | $11.25 | -25.1% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.97 | -13.7% | 100% | 81 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $11 | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 |
| Conservative (5%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (-10.6%) | $10 | $12 | $13 | $15 | $17 |
| Bull Case (-14%) | $9 | $11 | $13 | $15 | $16 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 10.70 | 7.55 | 5.98 | 18.39 | 5.31 |
| EV/EBIT | 4.84 | 5.06 | 1.78 | 7.33 | 1.88 |
| EV/EBITDA | 4.32 | 4.52 | 1.73 | 5.94 | 1.54 |
| P/FCF | 6.68 | 7.40 | 3.84 | 9.41 | 2.33 |
| P/FFO | 10.01 | 9.35 | 8.12 | 12.81 | 1.79 |
| P/TBV | 7.71 | 4.52 | 2.32 | 22.84 | 7.09 |
| P/AFFO | 12.05 | 10.66 | 8.47 | 17.43 | 3.29 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.35 | 1.33 | 1.13 | 1.47 | 0.12 |
| Div Yield | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.00 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.28 | 1.26 | 1.08 | 1.50 | 0.15 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SAMG's fair value at $12.97 vs the current price of $15.03, implying -13.7% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.97 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $10.59 (P10) to $18.70 (P90), with a median of $14.31.
SAMG's current P/E of 15.0x compares to the industry median of 11.7x (104 peers in the group). This represents a +28.5% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 10.7x over 7 years. Signal: Premium.
3 analysts cover SAMG with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SAMG trades at the 5770th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (10.7×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SAMG.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.