MODEL VERDICT
Seacoast Banking Corporation of Florida (SBCF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.29 | $31.31 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $31.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $32.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.28 | $32.25 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.26 | $32.37 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 11 industry peers | $22.39 | -28.5% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 11 industry peers | $40.25 | +28.6% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 11 bank peers | $32.26 | +3.0% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 10 industry peers | $27.88 | -11.0% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 11 industry peers | $22.39 | -28.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $28.07 | -10.3% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $30.70 | -1.9% | 100% | 97 | FAIRLY VALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 16× | 18× | 20× (Current) | 22× | 24× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| Conservative (5%) | $27 | $30 | $33 | $36 | $40 |
| Base Case (1.9%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $35 | $39 |
| Bull Case (3%) | $26 | $29 | $32 | $36 | $39 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 19.14 | 19.39 | 16.09 | 23.14 | 2.46 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.69 | 15.69 | 9.30 | 21.68 | 3.85 |
| EV/EBITDA | 15.14 | 14.11 | 9.53 | 21.68 | 3.88 |
| P/FCF | 15.95 | 13.80 | 10.94 | 26.89 | 5.23 |
| P/FFO | 17.71 | 16.76 | 14.83 | 22.98 | 2.82 |
| P/TBV | 1.84 | 1.88 | 1.58 | 2.09 | 0.17 |
| P/AFFO | 18.76 | 17.38 | 15.18 | 25.49 | 3.43 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.28 | 1.25 | 0.95 | 1.61 | 0.25 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 4.10 | 4.49 | 2.89 | 5.69 | 1.01 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SBCF's fair value at $30.70 vs the current price of $31.31, implying -1.9% downside potential. Model verdict: Fairly Valued. Confidence: 97/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $30.70 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $29.30 (P10) to $34.76 (P90), with a median of $32.03.
SBCF's current P/E of 19.8x compares to the industry median of 14.2x (11 peers in the group). This represents a +39.8% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 19.1x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
16 analysts cover SBCF with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $32.50 (range: $32.50 — $32.50), implying +3.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (7), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 97/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (15), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SBCF trades at the 9030th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (19.1×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SBCF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (22.1%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2830.0% to approximately $40. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.