MODEL VERDICT
Sachem Capital Corp. 6.00% Notes Due 2026 (SCCD) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $24.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $24.59 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $24.44 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.11 | $24.30 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.17 | $24.20 | Below threshold | +0.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dividend Yield 20 industry peers | $9.43 | -61.7% | 12% | B | Supplementary |
| Price / Book 23 industry peers | $7.18 | -70.9% | 8% | B | Model Driven |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $6.45 | -73.8% | 100% | 48 | SIGNIFICANTLY OVERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 54.78 | 49.31 | 35.47 | 79.56 | 22.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.00 | 13.52 | 9.51 | 15.96 | 3.26 |
| P/FCF | 19.39 | 0.05 | 0.02 | 77.41 | 38.68 |
| P/FFO | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/TBV | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.48 | 2.74 |
| P/AFFO | 0.04 | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.37 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 5.46 | 2.73 |
| Div Yield | 19.74 | 24.20 | 0.02 | 30.55 | 13.69 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.03 | 0.00 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 6 valuation metrics, the model estimates SCCD's fair value at $6.45 vs the current price of $24.65, implying -73.8% downside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Overvalued. Confidence: 48/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $6.45 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $4.08 (P10) to $12.41 (P90), with a median of $6.31.
SCCD's current P/E of -26.5x compares to the industry median of 27.2x (15 peers in the group). This represents a -197.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 54.8x over 3 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SCCD.
The model confidence score is 48/100, based on: data completeness (7), peer quality (25), historical depth (10), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SCCD.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.