MODEL VERDICT
Stifel Financial Corp. (SF)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $77.03 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $77.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.55 | $82.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.57 | $81.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.71 | $77.24 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 12 industry peers | $123.72 | +60.6% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 12 industry peers | $175.39 | +127.7% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Price / Tangible Book 12 bank peers | $171.24 | +122.3% | 20% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Dividend Yield 12 industry peers | $97.48 | +26.5% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 12 industry peers | $123.45 | +60.3% | 8% | B | Data |
| Forward P/E 12 analyst estimates | $99.21 | +28.8% | 7% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $112.52 | +46.1% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 9× | 11× | 13× (Current) | 15× | 17× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (3%) | $54 | $67 | $79 | $91 | $103 |
| Conservative (5%) | $56 | $68 | $80 | $93 | $105 |
| Base Case (7.2%) | $57 | $69 | $82 | $95 | $107 |
| Bull Case (10%) | $58 | $71 | $84 | $97 | $110 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 9.44 | 8.09 | 7.05 | 14.20 | 2.72 |
| EV/EBIT | 6.87 | 6.47 | 4.76 | 10.46 | 2.01 |
| EV/EBITDA | 6.33 | 5.80 | 4.41 | 9.76 | 1.88 |
| P/FCF | 8.54 | 7.67 | 2.43 | 18.84 | 5.41 |
| P/FFO | 8.04 | 6.83 | 6.24 | 12.35 | 2.32 |
| P/TBV | 1.54 | 1.39 | 1.18 | 2.09 | 0.33 |
| P/AFFO | 9.36 | 9.21 | 7.04 | 13.47 | 2.16 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.09 | 0.99 | 0.86 | 1.54 | 0.27 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.14 | 1.03 | 0.92 | 1.46 | 0.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 17 valuation metrics, the model estimates SF's fair value at $112.52 vs the current price of $77.03, implying +46.1% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $112.52 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $95.11 (P10) to $125.50 (P90), with a median of $110.15.
SF's current P/E of 13.1x compares to the industry median of 21.0x (12 peers in the group). This represents a -37.7% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 9.4x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
22 analysts cover SF with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $93.44 (range: $89.00 — $99.33), implying +21.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (13), Hold (9), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Multiple compression: SF trades at the 2700th percentile of its historical P/E range. A reversion to median (9.4×) would imply significant downside. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SF's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 1730.0% to approximately $64. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.