MODEL VERDICT
Stitch Fix, Inc. (SFIX)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.85 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.63 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $3.07 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 5 industry peers | $1.28 | -66.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 5 industry peers | $1.82 | -52.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 6 industry peers | $15.79 | +316.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $13.92 | +267.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 6 industry peers | $1.38 | -63.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $5.69 | +50.2% | 100% | 69 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/FCF | 114.56 | 46.54 | 10.55 | 474.50 | 177.57 |
| P/TBV | 4.98 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 14.99 | 4.79 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.98 | 3.33 | 1.05 | 14.99 | 4.79 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.07 | 0.53 | 0.17 | 3.51 | 1.20 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates SFIX's fair value at $5.69 vs the current price of $3.79, implying +50.2% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 69/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $5.69 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $3.48 (P10) to $10.25 (P90), with a median of $6.30.
SFIX's current P/E of -17.2x compares to the industry median of 32.3x (3 peers in the group). This represents a -153.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
33 analysts cover SFIX with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $4.00 (range: $4.00 — $4.00), implying +5.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (9), Hold (21), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 69/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SFIX.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.