Intrinsic Value (DCF)
Current$89.51
→
Intrinsic$49.75
-44%
$21.52$49.75$103.34
Market implies 30% growth for 5 years
Current price reflects execution expectations above 20% growth — not unreasonable for quality businesses.
At $90, the market prices in continued strong cash flow growth (30%) — likely reflecting buybacks, margin stability, and ecosystem strength.
Range: Bear $22 → Bull $103. Current price implies expectations above the base case, closer to bull expectations.
| Discount ↓Growth → | 16% | 18% | 20% | 22% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8% | $69 | $78 | $88 | $98 |
| 10% | $37 | $43 | $50 | $57 |
| 12% | $19 | $24 | $29 | $34 |
| 14% | $8 | $12 | $15 | $20 |
Bull Case
- Bull case ($103) offers 15% upside at 24% growth, 9% discount
Bear Case
- Bear case ($22) implies 76% downside at 16% growth, 12% discount
- Price reflects 30% growth expectations vs 20% historical — high bar to clear
- Trading 44% above base case — execution must exceed assumptions to justify
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5-Year Free Cash Flow Projection
Year 1$759.84M
Year 2$911.81M
Year 3$1.09B
Year 4$1.31B
Year 5$1.58B
Terminal$23.18B
📐 Model Inputs
Growth Rate20.0%5Y CAGR (cascade: 5Y→3Y→TTM)
Discount Rate10.0%WACC estimate
Terminal Growth3.0%Perpetuity rate
Base Free Cash Flow$633.20MTTM actual
Bear g×0.8, r+2%
Base Historical CAGR
Bull g×1.2, r−1.5%
DCF estimates based on historical growth rates extrapolated forward. See FAQ below for full methodology.