MODEL VERDICT
Seanergy Maritime Holdings Corp. (SHIP)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.62 | $15.47 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.69 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $14.57 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.31 | $14.34 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 28, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.32 | $14.35 | Below threshold | +2.2% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 4 analyst estimates | $23.01 | +48.7% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $24.18 | +56.3% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 3 industry peers | $14.27 | -7.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 1 industry peers | $13.92 | -10.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $26.00 | +68.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 1 industry peers | $4.96 | -67.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 4 industry peers | $9.47 | -38.8% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 4 industry peers | $14.65 | -5.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 3 industry peers | $10.37 | -33.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 1 industry peers | $13.24 | -14.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $19.43 | +25.6% | 100% | 77 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 11× | 13× | 15× (Current) | 17× | 19× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Conservative (7%) | $12 | $14 | $16 | $18 | $20 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $12 | $14 | $17 | $19 | $21 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $13 | $15 | $17 | $19 | $22 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 17.30 | 5.17 | 3.29 | 65.25 | 26.91 |
| EV/EBIT | 21.23 | 12.53 | 5.96 | 60.63 | 20.02 |
| EV/EBITDA | 7.29 | 6.97 | 4.06 | 14.33 | 3.52 |
| P/FCF | 43.95 | 11.03 | 4.68 | 149.05 | 70.13 |
| P/FFO | 3.14 | 2.97 | 1.89 | 5.36 | 1.37 |
| P/TBV | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.19 | 0.71 | 0.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.49 | 0.53 | 0.19 | 0.71 | 0.20 |
| Div Yield | 0.09 | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.20 | 0.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.79 | 0.83 | 0.10 | 1.31 | 0.47 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 26 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHIP's fair value at $19.43 vs the current price of $15.47, implying +25.6% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 77/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $19.43 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $14.99 (P10) to $26.13 (P90), with a median of $19.97.
SHIP's current P/E of 15.3x compares to the industry median of 14.1x (3 peers in the group). This represents a +8.4% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 17.3x over 5 years. Signal: Fair Value.
3 analysts cover SHIP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $17.00 (range: $17.00 — $17.00), implying +9.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (3), Hold (0), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 77/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (22), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHIP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (21.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15090.0% to approximately $39. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.