MODEL VERDICT
Shoals Technologies Group, Inc. (SHLS)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $8.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.94 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $7.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $6.98 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 7 analyst estimates | $5.27 | -35.4% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 4 industry peers | $4.58 | -43.9% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 4 industry peers | $3.99 | -51.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 4 industry peers | $5.86 | -28.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV To Revenue 8 industry peers | $7.64 | -6.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 8 industry peers | $6.17 | -24.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 4 industry peers | $3.79 | -53.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $12.44 | +52.4% | 100% | 55 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 |
| Conservative (5%) | $7 | $8 | $9 | $9 | $10 |
| Base Case (-1.0%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
| Bull Case (-1%) | $7 | $8 | $8 | $9 | $9 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 266.58 | 42.50 | 29.02 | 1157.14 | 498.01 |
| EV/EBIT | 53.44 | 27.33 | 20.34 | 159.58 | 59.55 |
| EV/EBITDA | 38.46 | 30.32 | 16.48 | 64.06 | 20.82 |
| P/FCF | 52.77 | 31.41 | 12.96 | 113.92 | 53.76 |
| P/FFO | 71.89 | 33.94 | 25.39 | 219.56 | 83.10 |
| P/TBV | 8.67 | 4.44 | 2.09 | 23.70 | 10.16 |
| P/AFFO | 122.67 | 64.03 | 30.64 | 329.04 | 126.21 |
| P/B Ratio | 5.62 | 3.54 | 1.68 | 13.74 | 5.56 |
| P/S Ratio | 7.20 | 5.23 | 2.34 | 12.77 | 5.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 19 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHLS's fair value at $12.44 vs the current price of $8.16, implying +52.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $12.44 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $6.05 (P10) to $23.63 (P90), with a median of $11.58.
SHLS's current P/E of 40.8x compares to the industry median of 19.9x (4 peers in the group). This represents a +104.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 266.6x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
23 analysts cover SHLS with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.83 (range: $8.00 — $12.00), implying +20.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (17), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (18), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --10 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHLS's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (20.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 177880.0% to approximately $153. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.