MODEL VERDICT
Silicom Ltd. (SILC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price / Free Cash Flow 27 industry peers | $63.63 | +202.9% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 28 industry peers | $87.59 | +316.9% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 37 industry peers | $34.11 | +62.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 37 industry peers | $20.17 | -4.0% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| FCF Yield 28 industry peers | $66.33 | +215.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $57.63 | +174.3% | 100% | 71 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 29.02 | 24.64 | 15.67 | 52.31 | 14.85 |
| EV/EBIT | 24.67 | 23.42 | 13.23 | 46.24 | 13.27 |
| EV/EBITDA | 19.77 | 19.59 | 11.80 | 33.47 | 8.88 |
| P/FCF | 23.48 | 6.03 | 3.94 | 91.82 | 38.26 |
| P/FFO | 22.80 | 20.59 | 13.83 | 36.94 | 9.64 |
| P/TBV | 1.80 | 1.95 | 0.78 | 2.80 | 0.75 |
| P/AFFO | 34.87 | 25.77 | 17.19 | 60.78 | 20.46 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.52 | 1.60 | 0.77 | 2.27 | 0.55 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.08 | 2.00 | 0.98 | 2.80 | 0.65 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 12 valuation metrics, the model estimates SILC's fair value at $57.63 vs the current price of $21.01, implying +174.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 71/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $57.63 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $40.44 (P10) to $97.33 (P90), with a median of $63.76.
SILC's current P/E of -9.2x compares to the industry median of 35.2x (19 peers in the group). This represents a -126.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 29.0x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
2 analysts cover SILC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is N/A (range: N/A — N/A), implying N/A upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (0), Hold (2), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 71/100, based on: data completeness (15), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SILC.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.