MODEL VERDICT
Silicon Motion Technology Corporation (SIMO) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $129.23 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $134.88 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $136.28 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $131.32 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $113.12 | Pending | +21.6% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 64 analyst estimates | $188.90 | +46.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 54 industry peers | $436.12 | +237.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 47 industry peers | $658.63 | +409.7% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 49 industry peers | $37.17 | -71.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 51 industry peers | $511.88 | +296.1% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 54 industry peers | $60.33 | -53.3% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 25 industry peers | $1194.01 | +823.9% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 74 industry peers | $880.88 | +581.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 74 industry peers | $824.97 | +538.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 48 industry peers | $689.59 | +433.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 53 industry peers | $38.01 | -70.6% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $360.61 | +179.0% | 100% | 75 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 5× | 7× | 9× (Current) | 11× | 13× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (18%) | $86 | $121 | $155 | $189 | $224 |
| Conservative (29%) | $94 | $132 | $170 | $208 | $245 |
| Base Case (45.0%) | $106 | $148 | $191 | $233 | $275 |
| Bull Case (61%) | $117 | $164 | $211 | $258 | $305 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.32 | 16.58 | 5.12 | 38.78 | 12.03 |
| EV/EBIT | 15.18 | 14.42 | 6.20 | 28.48 | 7.44 |
| EV/EBITDA | 13.38 | 11.28 | 4.68 | 28.19 | 7.63 |
| P/FCF | 44.19 | 26.84 | 17.34 | 124.00 | 37.77 |
| P/FFO | 16.60 | 15.91 | 5.09 | 27.46 | 7.35 |
| P/TBV | 2.94 | 2.98 | 0.94 | 5.01 | 1.22 |
| P/AFFO | 28.35 | 22.59 | 7.97 | 84.15 | 25.51 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.92 | 2.96 | 0.94 | 5.06 | 1.23 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.09 | 0.03 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.76 | 3.12 | 0.88 | 3.91 | 1.03 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SIMO's fair value at $360.61 vs the current price of $129.23, implying +179.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 75/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $360.61 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $310.20 (P10) to $450.85 (P90), with a median of $378.85.
SIMO's current P/E of 8.9x compares to the industry median of 45.1x (47 peers in the group). This represents a -80.4% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.3x over 7 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
31 analysts cover SIMO with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $142.50 (range: $120.00 — $160.00), implying +10.3% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (25), Hold (4), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 75/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SIMO's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.9σ, meaning margins are 0.9 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (16.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 14430.0% to approximately $316. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.