MODEL VERDICT
SM Energy Company (SM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $23.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $23.66 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.46 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.64 | $21.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $17.78 | Pending | +19.5% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 44 analyst estimates | $49.38 | +113.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 49 industry peers | $36.82 | +59.2% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 43 industry peers | $80.50 | +248.0% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 37 industry peers | $45.68 | +97.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 38 industry peers | $37.52 | +62.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 48 industry peers | $49.41 | +113.6% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 48 industry peers | $58.14 | +151.4% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 43 industry peers | $80.50 | +248.0% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 37 industry peers | $47.13 | +103.8% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $50.53 | +118.5% | 100% | 83 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 4× (Current) | 4× | 4× | 6× | 8× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $23 | $23 | $23 | $35 | $47 |
| Conservative (7%) | $24 | $24 | $24 | $36 | $48 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $25 | $25 | $25 | $37 | $50 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $26 | $26 | $26 | $38 | $51 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 24.06 | 5.64 | 3.32 | 101.66 | 43.39 |
| EV/EBIT | 10.47 | 6.08 | 3.59 | 26.12 | 10.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 3.83 | 3.61 | 2.50 | 5.49 | 1.04 |
| P/FCF | 5.87 | 5.36 | 2.96 | 9.72 | 2.78 |
| P/FFO | 7.03 | 2.83 | 0.99 | 34.16 | 12.02 |
| P/TBV | 0.93 | 1.06 | 0.23 | 1.77 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 13.16 | 11.29 | 5.16 | 27.53 | 9.35 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.93 | 1.06 | 0.23 | 1.77 | 0.59 |
| Div Yield | 0.01 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.15 | 1.29 | 0.40 | 1.95 | 0.59 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates SM's fair value at $50.53 vs the current price of $23.13, implying +118.5% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $50.53 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $38.98 (P10) to $77.84 (P90), with a median of $52.93.
SM's current P/E of 4.1x compares to the industry median of 14.3x (43 peers in the group). This represents a -71.3% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 24.1x over 5 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
53 analysts cover SM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $28.86 (range: $19.00 — $49.00), implying +24.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (30), Hold (18), Sell (5), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (24), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (10). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.2σ, meaning margins are 0.2 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (8.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 15420.0% to approximately $59. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.