SM Energy Company (SM) — Estimates & Forecasts
Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
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Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $818M | $770M | $648M | $718M | $857M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $6.86 | $6.67 | $5.64 | $6.27 | $7.53 | $9.02 | $9.89 |
| YoY Growth | — | -5.8% | -15.9% | +10.8% | +19.4% | +19.3% | +9.1% |
| Net Margin | 34.6% | 28.8% | 20.5% | 17.9% | 19.3% | 23.5% | 24.0% |
| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $3.2B | $4.0B | $4.4B | $4.4B | $4.7B |
| Net Income | $648M | $718M | $857M | $1.0B | $1.1B |
| EPS (Diluted) | $5.64 | $6.27 | $7.53 | $9.02 | $9.89 |
| Free Cash Flow | $573M | $1.7B | $2.0B | $2.0B | $2.2B |
Treat point estimates cautiously; use wider scenario ranges and position sizing discipline.
SM Energy Company's projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $6.27. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 35/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for SM Energy Company: Bear case $-661, Base case $31, and Bull case $817. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
SM Energy Company's projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 26.9%, reaching approximately $4.0B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 35/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Contracting margins add uncertainty to forward projections. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
SM Energy Company's forward operating margin is estimated at 5.6% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "contracting". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($-661) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is above Wall Street consensus with a 70.8% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 17% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.