Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI)
Valuation Overview•Is Super Micro Computer, Inc. Overvalued or Undervalued?
Trading at a relative discount to industry peers, suggesting a specific risk premium is applied.
Moderate quality score of 59/100, reflecting stable operating margins and manageable leverage.
Analysts remain bullish, forecasting further upside expansion with consensus targets suggesting solid gains.
Verdict: Average quality business weighed down by significant profitability concerns.
Wall Street is highly bullish, projecting significant upside. However, capital return yields remain modest, driven predominantly by aggressive share repurchases.
Returns capital exclusively via buybacks — no active dividend
SMCI demonstrates adequate business quality with stable profitability. This is backed by a fortress balance sheet, holding significant net cash ($391M) and minimal debt risk.
The company is driving exceptional top-line expansion (61.7% 3Y CAGR) paired with robust earnings compounding (13.8% EPS 3Y CAGR). However, profitability remains a major concern with severely compressed operating margins (4.5%).
| Financial Metric | Trend (12Q) | Latest Qtr | 1Y Growth | 3Y CAGR | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $10.2B | +46.6% | +61.7% | +45.8% | +27.1% | |
| EBITDA | $592.2M | — | +52.5% | — | — | |
| Net Income | $1.0B | -9.0% | +54.4% | — | +26.3% | |
| EPS (Diluted) | $0.73 | +0.0% | +13.8% | +60.0% | +23.7% | |
| Free Cash Flow | -$6.7B | +158.7% | — | — | — |
| Metric | TTM | 3Y Avg | 5Y Avg | 10Y Avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gross Margin | 8.4% | 14.3% | 14.6% | 14.5% |
| Operating Margin | 4.5% | 8.2% | 6.9% | 5.1% |
| Net Margin | 5.3% | 7.1% | 6.0% | 4.2% |
| FCF Margin | -20.3% | -0.5% | -1.8% | -0.5% |
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | EPS | Rev |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2'26Latest | $0.62 | $0.84 | +36.1% | ||
| Q1'26 | $0.49 | $0.69 | +40.8% | ||
| Q4'25 | $0.37 | $0.35 | -6.6% | ||
| Q3'25 | $0.45 | $0.41 | -7.9% | ||
| Q2'25 | $0.41 | $0.31 | -24.5% | ||
| Q1'25 | $0.58 | $0.51 | -12.7% | ||
| Q4'24 | $0.73 | $0.75 | +2.5% | ||
| Q3'24 | $0.81 | $0.63 | -22.4% |
Total return is -31.1% (1Y), lagging the benchmark by -56.0%
| Period | Total Return | vs S&P 500 (Alpha) | Dividend Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| YTD | -1.0% | -10.3% | — |
| 1Y | -31.1% | -56.0% | — |
| 3YCAGR | +11.3% | -11.8% | — |
| 5YCAGR | +55.0% | +38.5% | — |
| 10YCAGR | +27.6% | +13.0% | — |
The S&P 500 is at 31.3x trailing P/E — Expensive relative to historical averages.
Quick answers to common questions about Super Micro Computer, Inc. (SMCI) valuation, health, and returns.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. is estimated to be fair under our discounted cash flow framework. relative multiples indicate the stock is Cheap versus peers compared to industry peers. trading near fair value (DCF: $30.34)
Super Micro Computer, Inc. has multiple valuation anchors: DCF Intrinsic Value: $30.34 | Peer Relative Fair Value: $70.91 | Wall Street Analyst Target: $38.60 (implying +25.9% upside). A convergence of these signals offers higher conviction.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. displays fair financial health with a composite quality score of 59/100, supported by a Altman Z-Score of 4.9 (safe zone), Piotroski F-Score of 6/9, Return on Invested Capital (ROIC) of 15.9%.
Super Micro Computer, Inc. returns capital via buybacks instead of dividends, carrying a 1.1% buyback yield and reducing outstanding shares by +0.0% in the last 12 months.
Super Micro Computer, Inc.'s current growth trajectory is Decelerating. The company achieved +46.6% 1Y revenue growth and +0.0% 1Y EPS growth, compared to its 3Y revenue CAGR of +61.7%.
Wall Street consensus is Hold based on 22 analysts, beating EPS expectations in 58% of recent quarters with a 2-quarter streak. The consensus price target represents a +25.9% change from current levels.
Investment risks for Super Micro Computer, Inc. include: -66.2% 1-year max drawdown, high beta (3.55x market volatility). Volatility risk is characterized by a beta of 3.55x.
No. These computations are purely quantitative model outputs for informational purposes. They do not account for qualitative management shifts or macro events. Always consult a licensed RIA before buying or selling shares.
Disclaimer: This page is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. All valuation models, scores, and target estimates are automated computations under stated assumptions and should not be relied upon as the sole basis for any investment decision.