MODEL VERDICT
Synchronoss Technologies, Inc. (SNCR) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 89 analyst estimates | $20.45 | +127.0% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 65 industry peers | $52.27 | +480.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 52 industry peers | $10.21 | +13.3% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 79 industry peers | $21.14 | +134.6% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 58 industry peers | $31.52 | +249.8% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 83 industry peers | $6.02 | -33.2% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| EV To Revenue 106 industry peers | $36.80 | +308.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 106 industry peers | $49.63 | +450.8% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 56 industry peers | $10.47 | +16.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 83 industry peers | $21.69 | +140.7% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $26.93 | +198.9% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 17× | 19× | 21× (Current) | 23× | 25× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (4%) | $8 | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 |
| Conservative (7%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $11 |
| Base Case (10.0%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
| Bull Case (14%) | $8 | $9 | $10 | $11 | $12 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| EV/EBITDA | 14.88 | 12.85 | 6.56 | 25.69 | 7.05 |
| P/FFO | 7.88 | 6.89 | 4.40 | 13.36 | 3.90 |
| P/AFFO | 9.02 | 7.98 | 4.79 | 15.33 | 4.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 2.27 | 2.18 | 0.36 | 5.89 | 1.96 |
| Div Yield | 0.06 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.16 | 0.06 |
| P/S Ratio | 1.42 | 0.59 | 0.31 | 6.83 | 2.39 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 22 valuation metrics, the model estimates SNCR's fair value at $26.93 vs the current price of $9.01, implying +198.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $26.93 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $19.28 (P10) to $34.91 (P90), with a median of $26.78.
SNCR's current P/E of 21.0x compares to the industry median of 23.7x (52 peers in the group). This represents a -11.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
21 analysts cover SNCR with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $9.00 (range: $9.00 — $9.00), implying -0.1% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (11), Hold (7), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (27), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SNCR.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.