MODEL VERDICT
Sound Group Inc. (SOGP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.61 | $13.81 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $550.23 | +3884.3% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $527.78 | +3721.8% | 100% | 55 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/TBV | 0.32 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1.03 | 0.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.31 | 0.08 | 0.05 | 1.01 | 0.41 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.11 | 0.05 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 3 valuation metrics, the model estimates SOGP's fair value at $527.78 vs the current price of $13.81, implying +3721.8% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 55/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $527.78 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $294.32 (P10) to $805.07 (P90), with a median of $547.00.
SOGP's current P/E of -6.8x compares to the industry median of 26.2x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -125.8% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is N/Ax over 0 years. Signal: Deep Discount.
No analyst coverage data is available for SOGP.
The model confidence score is 55/100, based on: data completeness (6), peer quality (25), historical depth (16), earnings stability (5), and model agreement (3). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows moderate agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk data is not available for SOGP.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.