MODEL VERDICT
Salesforce, Inc. (CRM) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $194.79 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $185.16 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $189.72 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $193.45 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.72 | $259.94 | Pending | -25.4% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $239.24 | +22.8% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $247.52 | +27.1% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $205.40 | +5.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $294.55 | +51.2% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $237.04 | +21.7% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $280.57 | +44.0% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $151.18 | -22.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $149.86 | -23.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $143.64 | -26.3% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $227.80 | +16.9% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $296.64 | +52.3% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $546.23 | +180.4% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 21× | 23× | 25× (Current) | 27× | 29× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $172 | $188 | $205 | $221 | $237 |
| Conservative (8%) | $177 | $194 | $211 | $227 | $244 |
| Base Case (12.2%) | $184 | $201 | $219 | $236 | $254 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $191 | $209 | $227 | $245 | $264 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 432.92 | 79.60 | 24.97 | 1483.53 | 642.80 |
| EV/EBIT | 205.49 | 145.01 | 20.82 | 519.62 | 197.14 |
| EV/EBITDA | 46.79 | 40.46 | 20.82 | 78.48 | 22.52 |
| P/FCF | 34.77 | 34.64 | 12.93 | 57.77 | 16.47 |
| P/FFO | 42.70 | 34.16 | 16.79 | 83.66 | 23.98 |
| P/TBV | 62.90 | 52.24 | 21.37 | 106.20 | 32.84 |
| P/AFFO | 52.17 | 38.07 | 17.75 | 116.90 | 35.20 |
| P/B Ratio | 4.41 | 4.50 | 2.22 | 5.70 | 1.33 |
| P/S Ratio | 8.02 | 8.37 | 4.48 | 11.12 | 2.73 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates CRM's fair value at $546.23 vs the current price of $194.79, implying +180.4% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $546.23 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $309.36 (P10) to $1041.23 (P90), with a median of $578.24.
CRM's current P/E of 25.0x compares to the industry median of 26.3x (71 peers in the group). This represents a -5.2% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 432.9x over 7 years. Signal: Fair Value.
97 analysts cover CRM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $299.00 (range: $235.00 — $400.00), implying +53.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (72), Hold (21), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that CRM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.0σ, meaning margins are 1.0 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.3%), the model estimates fair value drops by 89540.0% to approximately $1939. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.