MODEL VERDICT
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) — Relative Valuation
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 28, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $120.73 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 21, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $126.20 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 14, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $112.70 | CURRENT | — |
| Feb 11, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.68 | $127.24 | CURRENT | — |
| Jan 11, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $164.48 | Below threshold | -28.0% |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 113 analyst estimates | $37.22 | -69.2% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 80 industry peers | $24.77 | -79.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 71 industry peers | $24.41 | -79.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 105 industry peers | $30.03 | -75.1% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 77 industry peers | $29.14 | -75.9% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 107 industry peers | $28.87 | -76.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 32 industry peers | $43.65 | -63.8% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 124 industry peers | $31.47 | -73.9% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 125 industry peers | $29.28 | -75.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 75 industry peers | $25.82 | -78.6% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 107 industry peers | $30.07 | -75.1% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $204.35 | +69.3% | 100% | 81 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 108× | 118× | 128× (Current) | 138× | 148× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (12%) | $113 | $124 | $134 | $145 | $155 |
| Conservative (19%) | $121 | $132 | $143 | $154 | $166 |
| Base Case (29.3%) | $131 | $143 | $156 | $168 | $180 |
| Bull Case (40%) | $142 | $155 | $168 | $181 | $194 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 302.98 | 171.24 | 60.68 | 779.00 | 306.24 |
| EV/EBIT | 443.61 | 142.17 | 55.42 | 1360.23 | 549.54 |
| EV/EBITDA | 411.09 | 329.50 | 124.23 | 861.13 | 351.45 |
| P/FCF | 1082.94 | 236.64 | 86.66 | 5468.12 | 2152.15 |
| P/FFO | 230.20 | 166.45 | 58.85 | 499.61 | 193.03 |
| P/TBV | 15.06 | 16.22 | 7.31 | 23.48 | 5.15 |
| P/AFFO | 263.74 | 169.95 | 59.87 | 619.14 | 241.89 |
| P/B Ratio | 13.79 | 14.90 | 5.33 | 21.83 | 5.08 |
| P/S Ratio | 24.30 | 18.18 | 7.85 | 47.71 | 14.37 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SHOP's fair value at $204.35 vs the current price of $120.73, implying +69.3% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 81/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $204.35 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $89.16 (P10) to $541.87 (P90), with a median of $231.99.
SHOP's current P/E of 128.4x compares to the industry median of 26.0x (71 peers in the group). This represents a +394.6% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 303.0x over 5 years. Signal: High Premium.
63 analysts cover SHOP with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $165.16 (range: $115.00 — $200.00), implying +36.8% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (40), Hold (20), Sell (3), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 81/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SHOP's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.1σ, meaning margins are 0.1 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (5.6%), the model estimates fair value drops by 2400.0% to approximately $150. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.