MODEL VERDICT
SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $58.92 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $54.65 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $57.62 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $55.36 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $51.45 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 11 analyst estimates | $103.06 | +74.9% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 8 industry peers | $90.43 | +53.5% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 7 industry peers | $68.98 | +17.1% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 10 industry peers | $86.49 | +46.8% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 7 industry peers | $72.00 | +22.2% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 10 industry peers | $97.69 | +65.8% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 4 industry peers | $90.27 | +53.2% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 11 industry peers | $93.72 | +59.1% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 11 industry peers | $82.92 | +40.7% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 7 industry peers | $69.16 | +17.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 10 industry peers | $86.93 | +47.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $124.14 | +110.7% | 100% | 85 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 20× | 22× | 24× (Current) | 26× | 28× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (6%) | $52 | $57 | $62 | $68 | $73 |
| Conservative (9%) | $54 | $59 | $65 | $70 | $75 |
| Base Case (14.3%) | $56 | $62 | $67 | $73 | $79 |
| Bull Case (19%) | $59 | $65 | $70 | $76 | $82 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 83.65 | 86.19 | 36.23 | 117.64 | 28.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 68.09 | 75.79 | 26.20 | 94.78 | 24.33 |
| EV/EBITDA | 47.36 | 51.38 | 18.38 | 63.43 | 16.42 |
| P/FCF | 48.86 | 54.65 | 22.24 | 64.55 | 15.10 |
| P/FFO | 55.25 | 58.39 | 22.34 | 75.69 | 18.61 |
| P/TBV | 18.17 | 18.66 | 7.81 | 25.40 | 5.69 |
| P/AFFO | 72.05 | 74.81 | 27.07 | 105.39 | 25.42 |
| P/B Ratio | 8.17 | 8.84 | 3.48 | 10.88 | 2.74 |
| P/S Ratio | 10.41 | 10.92 | 4.51 | 13.66 | 3.44 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPSC's fair value at $124.14 vs the current price of $58.92, implying +110.7% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 85/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $124.14 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $109.06 (P10) to $138.62 (P90), with a median of $123.64.
SPSC's current P/E of 24.0x compares to the industry median of 28.0x (7 peers in the group). This represents a -14.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 83.6x over 7 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
23 analysts cover SPSC with a consensus rating of Hold. The consensus price target is $68.71 (range: $60.00 — $86.00), implying +16.6% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (2), Buy (8), Hold (13), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 85/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (8), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPSC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.6σ, meaning margins are 0.6 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (12.5%), the model estimates fair value drops by 26570.0% to approximately $215. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.