SPS Commerce, Inc. (SPSC)
Estimates & Forecasts•Proprietary EPS, revenue & margin forecasts — FY+1 to FY+4
Popular:
SPSC Price Targets Summary| Metric | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income | $66M | $77M | $93M | $124M | $142M | $149M | $170M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $1.76 | $2.04 | $2.46 | $3.32 | $3.78 | $3.95 | $4.49 |
| YoY Growth | — | +17.1% | +21.1% | +33.4% | +14.4% | +4.8% | +14.2% |
| Net Margin | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.4% | 14.2% | 13.9% | 12.2% | 12.2% |
USD · SPSC · Proprietary Model| Metric | 2025A | 2026E | 2027E | 2028E | 2029E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $752M | $875M | $1.0B | $1.2B | $1.4B |
| Net Income | $93M | $124M | $142M | $149M | $170M |
| EPS (Diluted) | $2.46 | $3.32 | $3.78 | $3.95 | $4.49 |
| Free Cash Flow | $152M | $183M | $215M | $259M | $295M |
Forecast ranges are relatively stable; revisions are usually smaller unless a major catalyst hits.
Quick answers to the most common questions about buying SPSC stock.
SPS Commerce, Inc.'s projected EPS for the next fiscal year is $3.32. This estimate blends our quantitative model with Wall Street analyst consensus and carries a confidence score of 79/100. The model factors in revenue trajectory, margin path, and share buyback trends to arrive at this figure.
Our scenario-based model produces three price targets for SPS Commerce, Inc.: Bear case $20, Base case $86, and Bull case $93. These targets are derived by applying the median historical P/E ratio to forward EPS estimates under each growth scenario. They are not buy/sell recommendations.
SPS Commerce, Inc.'s projected revenue growth for the next fiscal year is 14.8%, reaching approximately $0.9B in total revenue. Growth estimates are probability-weighted and blend analyst consensus with our CAGR extrapolation model. Outer years (FY+3, FY+4) fade toward industry median growth rates.
Accuracy depends on several measurable factors. Our model confidence score of 79/100 is computed from revenue predictability (25% weight), margin stability (20%), historical earnings beat rate (20%), data depth (15%), analyst coverage (10%), and model-consensus agreement (10%). Stable margins provide a consistent baseline. No forecast model is perfect — always cross-reference with your own analysis.
SPS Commerce, Inc.'s forward operating margin is estimated at 15.2% for the next fiscal year. The margin trend is currently "stable". Our model tracks margin mean-reversion patterns and adjusts for sector-specific cost dynamics. Operating leverage is a key driver of EPS growth beyond top-line revenue expansion.
The v2 model uses a multi-step process: (1) Revenue is projected via blended CAGR with probability weighting, (2) Operating and net margins follow a mean-reversion path calibrated to sector norms, (3) EPS is derived from net income divided by projected diluted shares (accounting for buyback trends), (4) For FY+1 and FY+2, estimates are blended with analyst consensus based on coverage depth, (5) Price targets apply median historical P/E to forward EPS under bear/base/bull growth scenarios. All inputs are from public filings and third-party data providers.
The bear case ($20) assumes P25 revenue growth, worst-case margins, and multiple compression. Key risks include: unexpected margin contraction, revenue deceleration below model floor, regulatory headwinds, macro deterioration, or competitive disruption. A confidence score below 60 suggests higher estimate volatility. Always size positions according to the full scenario range, not just the base case.
Our model is below Wall Street consensus with a 26.1% gap. For FY+1, analyst estimates blend with our model at 27% analyst weight. By FY+3 and FY+4, estimates are purely model-driven as analyst coverage thins out at longer horizons.