MODEL VERDICT
SPX Technologies, Inc. (SPXC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.65 | $208.13 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $222.82 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $223.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $219.99 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.67 | $215.97 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 9 analyst estimates | $196.50 | -5.6% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $221.46 | +6.4% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 9 industry peers | $188.61 | -9.4% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 8 industry peers | $154.05 | -26.0% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 9 industry peers | $192.96 | -7.3% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 8 industry peers | $168.42 | -19.1% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 5 industry peers | $142.70 | -31.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $169.16 | -18.7% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $166.20 | -20.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 9 industry peers | $188.61 | -9.4% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 8 industry peers | $153.19 | -26.4% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $724.31 | +248.0% | 100% | 73 | SIGNIFICANTLY UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 35× | 38× | 41× (Current) | 44× | 47× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (8%) | $189 | $206 | $222 | $238 | $254 |
| Conservative (12%) | $198 | $215 | $232 | $248 | $265 |
| Base Case (18.9%) | $209 | $227 | $245 | $263 | $281 |
| Bull Case (26%) | $221 | $240 | $259 | $278 | $297 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 2208.27 | 33.92 | 6.52 | 15267.44 | 5758.57 |
| EV/EBIT | 35.27 | 27.17 | 23.92 | 86.08 | 22.60 |
| EV/EBITDA | 21.88 | 20.72 | 18.12 | 32.17 | 4.87 |
| P/FCF | 24.94 | 24.00 | 16.82 | 40.24 | 8.69 |
| P/FFO | 27.81 | 24.00 | 5.93 | 65.12 | 18.22 |
| P/TBV | 18.50 | 13.65 | 12.06 | 29.78 | 9.80 |
| P/AFFO | 36.37 | 29.52 | 6.06 | 98.84 | 29.37 |
| P/B Ratio | 3.86 | 3.94 | 2.52 | 4.95 | 0.90 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.72 | 2.28 | 2.04 | 4.28 | 0.85 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SPXC's fair value at $724.31 vs the current price of $208.13, implying +248.0% upside potential. Model verdict: Significantly Undervalued. Confidence: 73/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $724.31 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $164.40 (P10) to $3528.09 (P90), with a median of $900.87.
SPXC's current P/E of 41.4x compares to the industry median of 37.5x (9 peers in the group). This represents a +10.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 2208.3x over 7 years. Signal: Slight Premium.
11 analysts cover SPXC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $247.00 (range: $243.00 — $251.00), implying +18.7% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (8), Hold (3), Sell (0), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 73/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (2). Cyclicality penalty: --8 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Margin reversion: Current net margin of 10.8% is 5.7 percentage points above the 7-year average (10.2%), with a Z-score of +1.2σ. If margins normalize, fair value could drop to ~$10463. (2) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SPXC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +1.2σ, meaning margins are 1.2 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (10.2%), the model estimates fair value drops by 492700.0% to approximately $10463. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.