MODEL VERDICT
SSR Mining Inc. (SSRM)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
Popular:
Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.51 | $29.19 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $30.55 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $31.75 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.69 | $31.15 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | MODERATE | 0.70 | $33.13 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Forward P/E 10 analyst estimates | $38.08 | +30.5% | 20% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| EV/EBITDA 10 industry peers | $28.39 | -2.7% | 20% | A- | Peer Data |
| Industry Median P/E 10 industry peers | $33.80 | +15.8% | 15% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Free Cash Flow 9 industry peers | $22.90 | -21.5% | 15% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/EBIT 10 industry peers | $28.43 | -2.6% | 8% | B+ | Peer Data |
| EV/FCF 9 industry peers | $23.18 | -20.6% | 7% | B | Model Driven |
| Peg Ratio 7 industry peers | $14.78 | -49.4% | 5% | B | Data |
| EV To Revenue 10 industry peers | $39.52 | +35.4% | 4% | B | Data |
| Price / Sales 10 industry peers | $41.19 | +41.1% | 3% | B | Model Driven |
| Earnings Yield 10 industry peers | $33.62 | +15.2% | 2% | B | Data |
| FCF Yield 9 industry peers | $22.90 | -21.5% | 1% | B | Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $34.42 | +17.9% | 100% | 83 | UNDERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 12× | 14× | 16× (Current) | 18× | 20× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (5%) | $23 | $27 | $31 | $35 | $39 |
| Conservative (8%) | $24 | $28 | $32 | $36 | $40 |
| Base Case (12.9%) | $25 | $29 | $33 | $38 | $42 |
| Bull Case (17%) | $26 | $30 | $35 | $39 | $43 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 20.24 | 17.61 | 10.86 | 40.98 | 12.20 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.63 | 12.18 | 8.09 | 14.37 | 2.69 |
| EV/EBITDA | 10.89 | 9.28 | 5.22 | 24.32 | 6.87 |
| P/FCF | 87.10 | 19.47 | 9.10 | 314.36 | 123.70 |
| P/FFO | 11.33 | 10.91 | 6.78 | 18.99 | 4.46 |
| P/TBV | 0.96 | 0.87 | 0.36 | 2.18 | 0.59 |
| P/AFFO | 18.80 | 14.64 | 9.37 | 30.37 | 9.30 |
| P/B Ratio | 0.94 | 0.86 | 0.36 | 2.08 | 0.56 |
| Div Yield | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 2.77 | 2.87 | 1.41 | 3.89 | 0.99 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 28 valuation metrics, the model estimates SSRM's fair value at $34.42 vs the current price of $29.19, implying +17.9% upside potential. Model verdict: Undervalued. Confidence: 83/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $34.42 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $28.07 (P10) to $50.00 (P90), with a median of $36.55.
SSRM's current P/E of 15.8x compares to the industry median of 18.3x (10 peers in the group). This represents a -13.6% discount to the industry. The historical average P/E is 20.2x over 5 years. Signal: Slightly Cheap.
11 analysts cover SSRM with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $42.00 (range: $42.00 — $42.00), implying +43.9% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (0), Buy (6), Hold (4), Sell (1), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 83/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (4). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that SSRM's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of +0.7σ, meaning margins are 0.7 standard deviations above their historical average. If margins revert to the 5-year mean (12.4%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3440.0% to approximately $19. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.