MODEL VERDICT
Stewart Information Services Corporation (STC)
Relative Valuation•Peer multiples, Monte Carlo simulation & quality-adjusted fair value
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Composite score derived from valuation, quality, and risk factors
Quantitative model thresholds · For educational and research purposes only
Each row records the model's monthly assessment. High Conviction = the model detected notable undervaluation vs peers. Neutral = no notable divergence was found. The return column shows the actual price change over 90 days for reference. This is a quantitative observation log — not investment advice.
| Date | Assessment | Score | Price | Status | 90d Fwd Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 1, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.24 | $69.10 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 24, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $71.67 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 17, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $67.52 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 16, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.23 | $65.29 | CURRENT | — |
| Apr 10, 2026 | NEUTRAL | 0.25 | $64.60 | CURRENT | — |
Historical model observations for research purposes only. Past quantitative patterns do not predict future results. Not a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security.
| Methodology | Fair Value | vs Current | Weight | Quality | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Industry Median P/E 6 industry peers | $42.57 | -38.4% | 30% | A | Peer Data |
| Price / Book 6 industry peers | $71.01 | +2.8% | 25% | B | Model Driven |
| Forward P/E 6 analyst estimates | $53.00 | -23.3% | 15% | A- | Analyst Est. |
| Dividend Yield 6 industry peers | $69.03 | -0.1% | 10% | B | Supplementary |
| Earnings Yield 6 industry peers | $41.81 | -39.5% | 8% | B | Data |
| Price / Tangible Book 5 bank peers | $2.28 | -96.7% | 5% | B+ | Bank Primary |
| Price / Sales 6 industry peers | $251.48 | +263.9% | 4% | B | Model Driven |
| EV/EBITDA 6 industry peers | $39.31 | -43.1% | 3% | A- | Peer Data |
| Weighted Output Blended model output | $60.54 | -12.4% | 100% | 86 | SLIGHTLY OVERVALUED |
| EPS Growth ↓ | P/E Multiple → | 13× | 15× | 17× (Current) | 19× | 21× |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bear Case (2%) | $54 | $62 | $70 | $78 | $87 |
| Conservative (5%) | $55 | $64 | $72 | $81 | $89 |
| Base Case (-8.3%) | $48 | $56 | $63 | $70 | $78 |
| Bull Case (-11%) | $47 | $54 | $61 | $68 | $75 |
Cross-sectional regression predicting expected multiples based on growth, margins, ROIC, and beta.
| Multiple | Avg | Median | Min | Max | Std |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E Ratio | 18.60 | 12.32 | 6.70 | 52.93 | 16.64 |
| EV/EBIT | 11.21 | 7.11 | 4.49 | 24.37 | 7.51 |
| EV/EBITDA | 8.67 | 6.18 | 4.18 | 15.93 | 4.65 |
| P/FCF | 13.79 | 8.12 | 4.62 | 35.73 | 11.18 |
| P/FFO | 10.13 | 9.58 | 5.32 | 17.41 | 4.49 |
| P/TBV | 13.77 | 12.34 | 1.94 | 38.28 | 12.13 |
| P/AFFO | 14.56 | 11.53 | 6.77 | 29.35 | 8.71 |
| P/B Ratio | 1.25 | 1.24 | 0.85 | 1.67 | 0.24 |
| Div Yield | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| P/S Ratio | 0.61 | 0.66 | 0.38 | 0.76 | 0.14 |
Based on our peer multiples analysis with 23 valuation metrics, the model estimates STC's fair value at $60.54 vs the current price of $69.10, implying -12.4% downside potential. Model verdict: Slightly Overvalued. Confidence: 86/100. This is a quantitative estimate, not a recommendation.
The blended fair value of $60.54 is calculated using four lenses: industry median multiples (40%), historical multiples (30%), forward estimates (20%), and quality-adjusted multiples (10%). Monte Carlo simulation (10,000 iterations) gives a range of $51.65 (P10) to $74.73 (P90), with a median of $62.32.
STC's current P/E of 17.1x compares to the industry median of 10.5x (6 peers in the group). This represents a +62.3% premium to the industry. The historical average P/E is 18.6x over 7 years. Signal: High Premium.
8 analysts cover STC with a consensus rating of Buy. The consensus price target is $80.50 (range: $80.00 — $81.00), implying +16.5% upside from the current price. Grade breakdown: Strong Buy (1), Buy (3), Hold (2), Sell (2), Strong Sell (0).
The model confidence score is 86/100, based on: data completeness (30), peer quality (25), historical depth (20), earnings stability (4), and model agreement (7). Cyclicality penalty: -0 points. The model shows strong agreement across inputs.
The model flags several key risks: (1) Macro/regulatory risks are not captured in this model but remain material.
Peak earnings risk refers to the possibility that STC's current profitability is above its sustainable long-term trend. The model detects a margin Z-score of -0.3σ, meaning margins are 0.3 standard deviations below their historical average. If margins revert to the 7-year mean (4.9%), the model estimates fair value drops by 3440.0% to approximately $93. This isn't a prediction — it's a scenario analysis.
No. This dashboard is a quantitative research tool for educational and informational purposes only. It is not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. The operator of this platform is not a registered investment advisor (RIA), broker-dealer, or financial planner. All model outputs, fair value estimates, signals, and scenarios are the result of automated quantitative computations and should not be construed as professional financial guidance. You should consult a qualified, licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Past model performance is not indicative of future results.